r/politics • u/rollingstone Rolling Stone • May 15 '24

Biden Challenges Trump to Two Debates. Trump Immediately Accepts Soft Paywall

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/biden-challenges-trump-debates-1235021164/
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1.6k

u/torode May 15 '24

By the time the first debate which Trump will find an excuse to back out of rolls around, he will not only be a court-adjudicated rapist but also a convicted felon.

467

u/Just_Candle_315 May 15 '24

If the manhattan jury returns a guilty verdict he might be in prison

317

u/RobsSister May 15 '24

OhpleaseOhpleaseOhplease šŸ¤žšŸ¤ž

239

u/CaptainNoBoat May 15 '24

I'd love to see it, but caution anyone getting their hopes up.

Given that this would be Trumpā€™s first criminal conviction ā€” and the charges are nonviolent in nature ā€” the former president would be unlikely to receive much, if any, jail time. But it is possible. An analysis of prior cases where falsifying business records was charged as a felony found that approximately 1 in 10 cases resulted in prison time.

Even if sentenced to prison, an appeal gives him much better odds of avoiding incarceration temporarily.

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u/beekersavant May 15 '24

Especially due to the nature of the scheme, it doesnā€™t seem like jail time is likely. The scheme was to win the election and they paid more taxes and money to enact it. Almost no one would go to jail for the records that were not actual theft. I would love for prison time, but your average Joe would not go to prison for this.

However, your average Joe would be in jail for contempt by now. Having surrogates attend the case and live tweet is just the dumbest thing. Honestly, I think the judge is about to drop the hammer on the surrogates and possibly Trumps lawyers.

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u/HFentonMudd May 15 '24

Cohen went to jail and he was a soldier, not the boss.

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u/Chaotic-Catastrophe May 15 '24

Cohen also had five counts of tax evasion on his sheet that Trump doesn't.

3

u/kriegsschaden New Hampshire May 15 '24

What I'm waiting for is the next trial where he's already a convicted felon. That will greatly increase the likelihood of jail time.

2

u/NemesisRouge May 15 '24

He's not your Average Joe. It was an illegal scheme to help him win the presidency.

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u/willdesignforfood May 15 '24

You raise a good point. But his behavior during this trial definitely wouldnā€™t help his cause to be one of the 9/10.

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u/Mendozena May 15 '24

His behavior hasnā€™t done shit to him in the past either. Heā€™s never going to jail.

Only thing that can stop him is the voters.

19

u/NoveltyAccountHater May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Only thing that can stop him is the voters.

He definitely could receive real prison time for his three other cases. Unfortunately, Cannon let the defense grind his Florida confidential documents case to a halt, the federal case in DC is being delayed by the Supreme Court judging if presidents are immune from prosecution (could a president be prosecuted for ordering Seal Team 6 to assassinate a rival without being removed from office through impeachment), and the Georgia case is a sprawling RICO trial that even if it started today would be unlikely to finish before election day.

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u/Nazi_Punks_Fuck__Off May 15 '24

Jeez, add those reasons to the pile heā€™s made the through the years. Mueller, his New York businesses under investigation, having to put up 700 millionā€¦ it all just melts away for this guy. I donā€™t know why youā€™d believe these things will stick when everything else just falls off this guy.

3

u/CankerLord May 15 '24

Because, like with the case he's currently napping through, once you get to the part of the process where you're desperately pushing back trial dates you've passed the part where things just "fall off". It might take a while but nothing he's actually indicted for is going anywhere with the potential exception of the federal stuff if he gets reelected and pardons himself.

2

u/Brooklynxman May 16 '24

Cannon let the defense

Ima stop you right there. Cannon is the defense, she has literally been making up shit even the defense hasn't tried to initiate.

1

u/Soft_Trade5317 May 15 '24

(could a president be prosecuted for ordering Seal Team 6 to assassinate a rival without being removed from office through impeachment)

Fuck it, rule he can. That gives Biden a clear and legal way to stop Trump AND open the court for new appointments that can immediately reverse it. I would never advocate anything illegal of course. But I do hope that if they decide to kill democracy, Biden doesn't pussyfoot around and let it happen and uses everything that SC says he can do to save it.

1

u/NoveltyAccountHater May 16 '24

Except of course the Supreme Court will not rule that way, they will just delay (or at best will give some convoluted exception that only applies to Trump's actions).

1

u/holycrapitsmyles California May 15 '24

Come on cholesterol, do your thing

1

u/OfficePicasso May 16 '24

Or that enlarged heart šŸ¤ž

3

u/cubanesis May 15 '24

Man, even if he served a week in jail that would go a long way at restoring a little faith in our legal system. Fines for people like trump donā€™t mean anything. They have Schrodengerā€™s money. They are rich but cash poor so they arenā€™t really paying a fine. A little jail time for these rich criminal fucks would go a long way. And I donā€™t mean cushy club fed. Put these soft pieces of shit in general pop at a super max.

2

u/THECapedCaper Ohio May 15 '24

A few caveats:

  • How many of these convictions had 34 counts associated with them?
  • How many of these convictions had a trial where 10 counts of contempt were also involved and the defendant was warned they could face possible jail time if continued and is now actively finding loopholes to circumvent a court order?
  • Would civil suits of associated business fraud come into play with regards to the State of New York given how the crimes listed also have taken place in New York?
  • Could the jury recommend prison and that be taken into consideration?

4

u/CaptainNoBoat May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

  • Multiple counts can be a factor, but not necessarily.

  • Contempt is generally treated separately and doesn't affect the sentence.

  • Civil suits won't be a factor in sentencing. Only elements directly pertinent to the criminal case.

  • Juries typically have no bearing on sentencing, and that is up to the judge. They simply vote on guilt.

In summary, the judge does have some discretion beyond sentencing guidelines at the end of the day, and these could be factors. But I'd say Trump's status and resources to appeal outweigh any of those. Very, very unlikely he sees a day in prison before November. I'd love for that to be wrong.

1

u/CaptainMagnets May 15 '24

Unfortunately he will never see the inside of a cell

1

u/defnotajournalist May 15 '24

But like so many other nice suburban kids caught in the trap, you just know heā€™s gonna fail a drug test on probation.

1

u/emaw63 Kansas May 15 '24

The unfortunate reality is that if you want to see the inside of a New York jail, then you have to be a teenager accused of stealing a backpack or something

1

u/meenie Oregon May 15 '24

Appeals only happen after sentencing and take place while the convicted felon is jail.

1

u/jeffp12 May 15 '24

Cohen did jail time for this exact same scheme

1

u/LetsTryAnal_ogy California May 16 '24

Also, he's being treated with kid gloves. No chance he sees in the inside of a cell for that.

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u/Cod-Medium May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Nah itā€™s a white collar business crime / fraud for a first offender thereā€™s no way heā€™s going to jail. On the other hand it makes the penalty phase of any conviction for the RICO case in Georgia a lot more serious

Edit - thanks for the reddit cares - nothing says ā€œIā€™m a chicken shit trumper who canā€™t participate in a the dialogue outside /r/conservative safe spaceā€ than abusing reporting in this manner. Itā€™s like a ā€œspecial upvoteā€. Thanks!!!

14

u/unhappy_puppy May 15 '24

The only reason i have any hope of consequences for this one is that another first-time offender went to jail for the same crime. it's only a little bit of hope . . .

33

u/jaylotw May 15 '24

I had a Trumper report me for "abuse," as well, when I asked him to quote what part of the gag order prevented Trump from taking the stand.

It's so much fun seeing such wimps pretend to be the tough guys.

2

u/ScaredLionBird May 16 '24

I once had a Trumper literally scream he had contacts and would "erase me" by PM. He was banned in a day.

9

u/espresso_martini__ May 15 '24

Lol the "special upvote". I also got one after a Trump comment. These fragile snowflakes really have no other way to express themselves. I'm disappointed I only got the one special upvote so far.

7

u/iskyoork Florida May 15 '24

It's funny how reverse things are going for them as they were all calling us snowflakes just a few years ago, now they have to hide in /r/Conservative cutting down any speech that doesn't agree with their cult.

1

u/Billy_Miles May 15 '24

to be fair, this is r/politics where bots massive downvote every opinion that could be interpreted as conservative so you can't even see the comment unless you click the little button

0

u/iskyoork Florida May 15 '24

Bots aren't people my friend.

2

u/kickaguard May 15 '24

You guys are late to the party. The "special upvote" has been going on everywhere since last night for any comment about anything. Has nothing to do with politics as far as I can tell. Just somebody fucking with reddit on a massive scale.

2

u/Cod-Medium May 15 '24

Interesting didnā€™t realize that. Youā€™d think they would just disable the feature already.

1

u/blasek0 Alabama May 16 '24

It's only hitting certain subreddits, apparently. I haven't gotten any from multiple comments in r/baseball but got one almost immediately after commenting in r/politics.

1

u/kickaguard May 16 '24

I got my first two from r/nottheonion and r/drugs. Figured it was everywhere.

1

u/kickaguard May 16 '24

That may be why they did it the way they did. Reddit can't very well disable the feature for sending somebody a message if you're concerned for their safety.

1

u/shazam99301 May 15 '24

Is that why I got a Reddit Cares thing? Lol.

1

u/Cod-Medium May 15 '24

Haha conservative snowflakes gonna snowflake

1

u/LiesArentFunny May 15 '24

Eh, it's a white collar business crime which generally isn't worth jail time... but Trump has been doing everything possible to signal that he is utterly unrepentant and to piss of the judge. There's a small but non negligible chance he talks himself into jail time here.

1

u/ScaredLionBird May 16 '24

I've promised myself if I get one more Reddit cares message, I'm reporting that moron and he's getting his ass banned. We'll soon see if anyone wants to martyr themselves in an attempt to annoy me.

92

u/KingL3fty May 15 '24

I wish, but have no hope of this.

38

u/frankdrachman May 15 '24

Nope. Trump will slither out of it. He always does

20

u/R50cent May 15 '24

Sad the way we're all expecting the American justice system to fail us. Sadder still that we're probably correct in feeling that way.

3

u/MudLOA California May 15 '24

Itā€™s always been this way. We just donā€™t pay attention to it. Thereā€™s enough loophole and appeal process to help rich/powerful people game the system.

2

u/Salanmander May 15 '24

Black Americans: "First time?"

12

u/EnderCN May 15 '24

Trump has lost almost every single court case that has gone to a trial. I don't know about jail but the expectation for the case should be guilty. He buys his way out of trouble or delays his way out of trouble. If it makes it to court he loses and turns it into publicity.

7

u/grimatongueworm May 15 '24

If nothing else, he'll be out on the inevitable appeal of the appeal of the appeal.

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u/Greennhornn May 15 '24

There is a better chance of me finding a winning lottery ticket stuck to my shoe, then trump seeing any time behind bars. I absolutely despise trump as much as I can any human.

10

u/DEATHCATSmeow May 15 '24

I mean, it doesnā€™t seem like the trial is going particularly well for himā€¦

7

u/Randomperson1362 May 15 '24

I agree, I think there is a good chance Trump will lose, but This case is also the most minor charges, compared to other cases. It's possible he could just get probation, and even if he was sentenced to prison, it's likely he would remain out while he appeals the charges, and that delay would easily take us past the election .

3

u/Chaotic-Catastrophe May 15 '24

Sure. He'll be found guilty on all counts, and then the judge will sentence him to a $50 fine and 45 minutes of community service.

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u/NawICan May 15 '24

When has he ever faced repercussions for his actions...

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u/black641 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

The fact that he, an ex-President, is in court AT ALL is proof heā€™s currently being held accountable for his actions. Not to mention his historic loss in 2020 as the incumbent. Guys like Trump want everyone to think theyā€™re untouchable because it seeds hopelessness. Donā€™t give them the satisfaction of wearing you down!

Edit: lol, someone sent me a Reddit Cares message. Is it just me or is this sub being brigaded?

1

u/Spidey209 May 15 '24

We've all got them. It is a badge of honor.

2

u/Greennhornn May 15 '24

I think he'll be convicted but he won't see jail time.

2

u/skratch May 15 '24

he'll just appeal till he dies, he'll never face consequences aside from having to show up in court here and there

0

u/DEATHCATSmeow May 15 '24

Appealing in a criminal case can only do so much. A juryā€™s verdict is supposed to be final. I guess never say never about the appellate courtā€™s in NY being cowards and saying he didnā€™t get a fair trial, but as a practicing criminal defense attorney, I can tell you that itā€™s quite rare for a criminal conviction to get overturned on appeal

5

u/exqueezemenow May 15 '24

That would be in a just world. But this is a first time offense for a guy who can violate a gag order 10 times with no jail time. I predict he will get probation.

10

u/duoderf1 May 15 '24

pending an appeal, which means no prison for at least a year

29

u/ghostarmadillo May 15 '24

Nope, for felonies you appeal from jail.

43

u/Jagermonsta May 15 '24

For you and I that would be the case but you know damn well Trump will get special privileges and get to be free while awaiting appeal.

13

u/AreYouDoneNow May 15 '24

He'll just get a suspended sentence.

11

u/HotTubMike May 15 '24

Yea, I find it unlikely falsifying business records is going to result in prison time for Trump.

8

u/BanginNLeavin May 15 '24

Which is insane because apparently $800 theft can get you to lose your gov't job.

https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2021/04/dinapoli-saranac-town-clerk-arrested-falsifying-town-records

2

u/Proshop_Charlie May 15 '24

Are you honestly trying to say what Trump did and this person did is the same thing?

Stealing over $800 and then moving money around to make it look like the money went into the account vs. what Trump did are no where near the same thing.

3

u/Silky_Mango Illinois May 15 '24

Yeah Trump tried to obfuscate what he did with a lot more than $800 lol

3

u/7figureipo California May 15 '24

Exactly: Trumpā€™s crime was orders of magnitude worse, because it violated campaign laws in order to illegally influence an election. Because Trump is a traitor

2

u/BanginNLeavin May 15 '24

And if she was found guilty she couldn't hold public office again. While if Trump is found guilty it doesn't matter at all.

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u/black641 May 15 '24

Iā€™d rather not borrow trouble and preemptively assume the worst possible outcome. Billionaires have gone to prison in this country before. Extreme wealth makes it easier for them to evade the law, but it doesnā€™t mean theyā€™re untouchable, either. They just want people to think thatā€™s the case.

2

u/_DapperDanMan- May 15 '24

Someone better tell Steve Bannon.

2

u/WanderingTacoShop May 15 '24

He will not be in prison for his current trial. Just set those expectations now.

This isn't because he's trump, it's because the crimes he's facing in this specific case generally won't result in jail time. It will be a fine, and maybe a little bit of house arrest or probation.

And since it's his first conviction he's going to be at the low end of the sentencing guidelines, as would any other defendant in that situation.

He's facing two classified document trials (Florida and DC) those are the ones he faces legit jail time for.

3

u/BigGrayBeast May 15 '24

"Welcome to the broadcast. We're at Super Max prison in Florence Colorado for the first debate between President Joe Biden and Inmate Donald Trump."

2

u/wjfox2009 May 15 '24

he might be in prison

Never going to happen, unfortunately. At best it'll be house arrest.

2

u/Agent7619 May 15 '24

I'd love to see Biden at a podium outside the gate of MaL while Trump is at a podium just inside the gate.

1

u/MudLOA California May 15 '24

At this point the bar is so low Iā€™ll be happy to take house arrest.

1

u/whatsamattafuhyou May 15 '24

Jail is for the poors.

1

u/MudLOA California May 15 '24

Donā€™t give me hope.

1

u/Warm_Emphasis_1115 May 15 '24

And if he doesn't get prison time, being guilty of a felony removes his right to vote in Florida until he has served all time, completed parole, and paid any fines and restitution.

He will likely not be eligible to vote for himself, if I have that interpreted correctly.

1

u/El_Morro May 15 '24

Considering the felony nature of the charges, he should definitely spend at least sometime in prison, and there's definitely a nonzero chance that he'll get some time.

That said, considering the circumstances I wouldn't expect more than maybe house arrest, probation and a big fine. Which he'll appeal (and lose).

The real benefit to the trial is that it's financially draining (those dollars would otherwise be going to ads, etc), and his inability to travel and campaign. You can't recover lost time and opportunity on the road, either.

So not expecting much, but what we're getting may still be enough for what counts.

1

u/kerpowie May 15 '24

Can't he appeal?

1

u/ericarlen May 15 '24

If they return a guilty verdict, and it looks like they just might, he probably won't get thrown in jail.

1

u/CarlosFer2201 Foreign May 15 '24 edited May 17 '24

Frankly I don't see anything more than house arrest. For this trial at least.

Edit: lol, got a reddit cares message. Maga heads are in full cope mode.

0

u/bookon May 15 '24

I think the most likely scenario is found guilty of misdemeanors, not felonies. Then fined heavily. And an Appeal.

Think of how he's not gone to jail for contempt. They don't want him in jail, they want him convicted, but not the hassle of putting him in jail.

0

u/kungfuhustler May 15 '24

As much as I hate to acknowledge it, there's like a zero percent chance this happens.

0

u/daikatana May 15 '24

The likelihood of that is basically zero. Even with a guilty verdict it's a class e felony with no previous convictions, he'll just get a fine and probation, both of which will be completely meaningless to Trump.

0

u/Chaotic-Catastrophe May 15 '24

He definitely won't be

0

u/earther199 May 15 '24

Doubtful. Heā€™ll be out on bail pending an appeal which will take years. Heā€™s unlikely to ever see inside a jail cell, no matter how much we want him too.

0

u/RisherdMarglus May 15 '24

lmao omg i remember being this delusional in 2016. props to you for your longevity.

0

u/Phiarmage May 15 '24

He's not going to prison for the lowest level of felonies. I'd rather see him forced to do 10,000 hrs of community service at a place like John 3:16.

But neither of these things will happen.

0

u/Junior-Gorg May 15 '24

Due to the nature of this crime and the fact Trump is a former President, I would imagine any prison sentence would be house arrest.

0

u/graburn May 15 '24

Given how the justice system treats him with kid gloves, if he faces any incarceration we shouldnā€™t be surprised if heā€™s sentenced to house arrest in Mar-A-Lago with permission to leave on anything related to campaigning or governing with lax standards as to what those constitute.

-1

u/Danjour May 15 '24

Zero chance of that, unfortunately.

-1

u/[deleted] May 15 '24

You're dreaming. The odds of them convicting are almost zero. If even one Trump cultist managed to sneak into that jury its all over. I believe the odds of that are high.

But even if not, even with loads of evidence, the jury may not want to convict a wealthy, affluent politician.

And even if they do, the judge may decide a wealthy affluent politician shouldn't have to serve time and will either dismiss the case regardless of the jury, or sentence him to a fine, or temporary house arrest at the most. House arrest he can probably get a waiver for if he's president.

-1

u/FortNightsAtPeelys May 15 '24

extremely unlikely sadly

-2

u/siberianmi May 15 '24

Not a chance, he'll appeal and never see the inside of a cell while that appeal is being processed.