Westbrook averaged 11.1 ppg, 5 rpg, 4.5 asts, 45.4% FG in 2023-24

He also had one of his best seasons on the defensive end.

Westbrook was quoted (to ESPN):

I will do whatever the team needs me to do," Westbrook told ESPN back in March. "My play, I'm always confident in wherever I go. If I'm here (with the Clippers), if I'm (with another team), it doesn't really matter. I'll do whatever the team is asking me to do and I'll compete to do what needs to be done. My confidence doesn't change. I've always been a team-first guy... Whatever's asked of me, I'll do it.

"I'm extremely confident in my abilities to be able to do and play at the highest level, still be elite at a lot of things in the league and come off the bench or starting, it don't matter."

Harden, who’s only one year younger than Westbrook, received $35 million per season (2 years) on a new contract from the Clippers.

Seems like Westbrook gave the Clippers at hometown discount.

With his experience and productivity from last season, should Westbrook have gotten more with another team?

Premise: With the recent news about Klay Thompson, and discussions about where players like Giannis, Luka, Booker, etc may take their careers, I got the “feeling” that it seemed the NBA had a rather peculiar amount of franchise greats riding it out with another team to end their career.

Method: I used the sports reference website to access the stats for the MLB, NHL, NFL, and NBA. For the MLB, I identified either the #1 or #2 career home run leader for that team. I then checked that player’s profile to see where they ended their career. If they finished their career with that team, one mark on the tally was given for that sport. This process repeated with the NHL, NFL, and NBA. Goals, passing yards, and points leaders were used for the corresponding sports. Totally same process, check history, check player, give tally or don’t. If a player continued to play, but not in that same professional league (Kemba in Europe as an example), they still counted as a tally. #2 stat leaders only counted as a tally if the current leader still plays in the same pro league. If the #1 leader is retired they alone are used. This could go either way, as some active leaders will definitely not return and others will likely retire there. Krakens and Knights were excluded from the NHL for being too new.

Data:

MLB 14/30 47%

NHL 14/30 47%

NFL 13/32 40%

NBA 9/30 30%

While the NBA doesn’t lag astronomically behind the other professional leagues, it’s still a sizable difference. I’m going to ignore comparing between sports further, as this is meant to be an NBA discussion.

Discussion Question: What is it about the NBA that makes all time great scorers so unlikely to retire with the franchise they scored so much for?

Angle to offer: Game Change As someone that’s only watched ball for the past 8 years, it’s astonishing to me the small changes that build up to a significant change in how the game is played just a few years ago to now. With how much the game has changed over the years, in a more dramatic way imo than other sports over the same timeframe, certain skills become so effective for a time that players are elite for just the right season. Then, the game changes so quick that as they near the retirement years the team has less and less of a non-sentimental reason to want them as a centerpiece for their team. This encourages trades and letting players walk. Simply put, archetypes expire and it becomes unreasonable to maintain those stars. We can discuss player empowerment, the 5 v 5 nature of ball, or whatever else but that’s my first initial thought on why the number is so low.

Clippers losing PG for nothing would likely mean the organization will throw in the towel on the whole Kawhi era, no? I don't see how they could operate through a rebuild quick enough to capitalize on an aging Kawhi, or one that could keep the team afloat in the regular season if Kawhi misses extended time. Especially in a Western Conference that has more teams improving than faltering.

We saw him stay relatively healthy this season, but his body immediately fell apart in the post-season. It would be a substantial risk for any team taking him on, but I'm not sure that the return price would be debilitating as the Clippers wouldn't have much leverage, especially if he asks out.

So, what teams would hypothetically be interested in an aging, oft-injured Kawhi? What would a trade package for Kawhi look like? Again, it isn't the safest move for a team looking to really take the next step, but the last time Kawhi was traded we all know what happened.

It’s taken far too long but I love everything the bulls have done to start this rebuild. Giddey is great at basketball and has a massively higher ceiling than Caruso. His off court issues made him a buy low guy. Matas buzelis might be one of the best rookies in the draft and fits next to Giddey. The price they paid for pat williams is so damn reasonable when you consider what other players are getting paid and he could still become good. I’m actually excited to see what they do over the next few years. Obviously they can’t trade Lavine currently but that could change if he plays decent this fall. Obviously they can’t trade lonzo but that’s open cap space down the line and down the line is where they need to be looking. I feel like they could get a pick and an expiring for vucevic as contenders decide to go all in.

The New York Knicks have made the biggest moves in trades and player signings so far (Bridges, Anunoby).

The big concern for the organization in the upcoming week is the fate of Center Isaiah Hartenstein (26 years old). Their crosstown rivals signed Center Nic Claxton (25 years old) to a 4 year, $100 million deal.

Let’s compare the two Centers stats from the 2023-24 season:

Claxton

11.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.1 asts, 2.1 bpg, 62.9% FG, 55.1% FT (71 games) N/A postseason stats

+/- Claxton -279, PER - 18.7

Hartenstein

7.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.5 asts, 1.1 bpg, 64.4% FG, 70.7% FT (75 games) Postseason Stats - 8.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.5 asts, 0.9 bpg, 59.2% FG, 86.2% FT (13 games)

+/- Hartenstein +406, PER - 19

Knicks Max Offer

It’s reported that the biggest offer the Knicks can make to Hartenstein is 4 years, $72.5 million. That’s approximately 30% less than Claxton’s contract.

State Taxes

The Thunder and Magic have been linked as the top teams to sign Hartenstein. The Knicks may possibly be third on the list. But even if the Knicks had the ability to clear more cap space to increase their contract offer to Hartenstein, the real dilemma is State Taxes. Orlando has a 0% income state tax rate.

The Magic have approximately $50 million dollars in cap space going into this offseason. Along with the city of Orlando’s favorable income state tax, the Magic have the strongest chance to sign the former NBA G League Finals MVP (2019).

I'm confused about the PG free agency. Is Paul George still not eligible to be traded in a sign and trade with another team?

I understand stand the one year opt in was ideal for the clippers, but can't they still get someone good in return for him?

Also isn't there still a chance he re signs with the clippers? I feel like things are being blown out of proportion, and not much has changed yet. Paul always wanted a long term contract and a opt in and trade would not have given him one.

Please explain the situation to me and what I'm missing.

The Pelicans have acquired Dejounte Murray in a trade from the Atlanta Hawks. Only giving up two first round picks, Larry Nance jr and Dyson Daniels for the former NBA all star.

The Pelicans projected starting lineup for the 2024-25 season:

PG - Dejounte Murray

SG - CJ McCollum

SF - Brandon Ingram

PF - Zion Williamson

C - Jonas Valanciunas

Murray averaged 22.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.4 assists last season. He’s also been a solid perimeter defender from his days with the San Antonio Spurs.

The Pelicans have finished in the 8th and 9th seeds for the past two seasons with significant injury throughout both campaigns.

How much of a threat can the new Pelicans with Murray be in the Western Conference?

In 2019-2020, Beal averaged 31 points and 6 assists a game on +1.9 rTS%. This is with a supporting cast of Rui Hachimura who had a -3.2 rTS%, Ish Smith, Troy Brown Jr, and Davis Bertans. Outside of Bertans, that's straight garbage around Beal, and yet he dragged that Wizards team to an above league average offense.

In 2020-2021, Beal averaged nearly 32 points a game with over 4 assists a game on +2.8 rTS% and carried them to the playoffs. Westbrook was absolutely terrible that season shooting wise with a comical -6.3 rTS%, which is in the 5th percentile all time. Obviously, Westbrook contributed to the team in ways other than shooting, but still that efficiency is horrid. The other players were Bertans, who was the only other solid player and Rui Hachimura and fricking Raul Neto and Robin Lopez.

Beal was in the 99th percentile in offensive load and points per 75 in both 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

Its seems to me that players imitating Curry's one motion quick release is what really opened the floodgates for maximizing 3 point attempts. By releasing it faster, there are more opportunities to get the shot off. I dont think as many players can excel at those shots if they are taking those high release hitch shots ala Timmy Hardaway. Just watch Iverson in the 3-point contest and you'll see what i mean.

Allen Iverson's Only NBA 3-Point Shootout Appearance (2000) (youtube.com)

Dame Lillard still has more of an old school shot, but it definitely takes more energy to get off and I think more players are using Curry's style than Lillard's.

Obviously, the hitch shot works quite well for big guys like Jokic

This morning Chris Paul agreed to bump his $30M salary guarantee date back from today until Sunday. The Warriors are still exploring potential trades involving him, including the possibility of Paul George opting into his final year of his contract with the Clippers and then being shipped to the Warriors for 2-4 of the following: CP3, Wiggins, Looney, GP2, Moody, Kuminga, and picks.

This trade makes some sense for all parties:

1. Warriors get a star to maximize Curry’s remaining years and secure an extension agreement with him on July 6th.

2. Paul George gets the maximum extension offer he desires

3. Clippers avoid losing PG13 for nothing and get some intriguing future assets - Warriors first-rounders, Warriors pick swaps during Curry’s decline years, or Kuminga/Moody. They also get flippable midsize salary - CP3 or Wiggins - which they could use along with first-rounders to try and upgrade.

4. Chris Paul gets one final big payday far beyond his current market value, and his family lives in LA.

However, there’s a good chance this trade falls through. PG13 might get the salary offer he desires from the Clips, or he might accept a lesser offer to stay in LA, or the Clips might decide they don’t want to help a Western Conference rival get better, or they may not like the fit of the players the Warriors are offering. It’s also trickier to make the money work with Clips/Warriors than it is with Portland, who is a non-taxpayer.

This last concern seems really likely. There’s not a player in that potential Warriors offer who seems like the ideal Clipper. CP3 and Harden both need the ball and had a bad divorce. Would acquiring Paul discourage Harden from re-signing? The Clips can’t open up cap space and don’t have an obvious path to replace Harden. Kuminga and Wiggins are athletic slashers who struggle to shoot - are they a good fit alongside Harden and Kawhi isos? Looney is a poor fit with Harden due to his athletic limitations when you consider Harden’s skill throwing lobs in the PnR.

These thoughts have me pivoting to a backup trade idea: CP3 and picks and/or swaps for Jerami Grant. Here’s why:

1. The money matches up perfectly as a one to one swap.

2. The Warriors need to get more athletic. Klay was guarding 4s by the end of his Warriors tenure, so essentially Grant fills Klay’s spot and provides more pop athletically and decent spot up shooting. It’s easier to play lineups with Draymond at 5 if you have Jerami Grant out there instead of Klay.

3. Pedigree. Warriors love NBA bloodlines. Jerami Grant knows how to play and has been on very good teams as an unselfish player before. He got paid and he’s gotten to be the man on multiple bad teams. He might be ready to surrounded by a better starting 5 again since he’s already locked in a good long term payday.

4. ‘Young Chris Paul’ was always the most idealistic outcome for Scoot Henderson. Who better to mentor him than CP3 himself. CP3 gets paid a great salary to mentor and play 20+ minutes a game.

5. DeAndre Ayton might’ve strongly disliked Chris Paul…but he looked a lot better playing with him than he did last year. Portland might be ok with acquiring a guy Ayton dislikes if it thinks CP3 can get the best out of him again. Certainly CP3 won’t give a shit about saying what needs to be said.

6. Portland’s recent moves may have set the table for this trade. The Deni trade with Washington gives them a capable wing replacement for Grant. Brogdon’s exit gives them a void at veteran backup PG.

7. Portland’s ‘25 first-rounder is lotto-protected, and this trade makes them the worst team in the Western Conference on paper, virtually assuring a top-5 pick next June.

Which trade seems more logical for an opted-in CP3 - Paul George or Jerami Grant? What package seems fair in return?

This is very random as I am in no way a thunder fan to the extent of watching them nightly. This pick to me just seems like your replacing Josh Giddey with a shorter josh giddey. Don’t get me wrong I don’t hate giddey as a player and I really like topic as a prospect, but they just traded giddey away for a reason. My biggest confusion/concern comes with the development of topic. He is a point gaurd who I’ve seen has passing abilities close to that of Luka doncic (though admittedly I haven’t watched much film) with elite level finishing. What I have never heard is that he is a good shooter and the numbers check out that he is not, he also isn’t physically protected as a good defender at the nba level. If he is playing in a staggered rotation with JDub and Shai there is no point where topic is able to lead the offense and flash his abilities. Chet is able to play in one of the most elite off ball roles and thus has the ability to develop in to a top 5 center (I say this vaguely to avoid argument), while topic really doesn’t have many off ball tools aside from slashing and him playing with the ball just makes the dynamics awkward between the backcourt and JDub. I feel like we just saw giddey a growth stunted with that. I really just don’t understand any rationale especially given that he will be out for at least a year and they are clearly in win now mode.

This is frustrating because the media, Lakers fans, and LeBron fans are talking out of both sides of their mouth.

On the one hand, the very obvious fact that Bronny was only, and I mean only drafted because his dad, the de facto GM, made them do it (thus being a clear case of nepotism), doesn’t matter because nepotism happens all the time in the NBA. Hey, just look at the Knicks, and it actually has worked out spectacularly for them. And the very obvious fact that Bronny, as a severely undersized shooting guard with a health scare and terrible college production, is not and likely never will be ready for the NBA, doesn’t matter because most #55 picks are not ready and never are ready for the NBA for any meaningful role.

Both of these things would seem to be explanations for why Bronny being drafted is completely insignificant, and not even a meaningful accomplishment. And yet we’re still supposed to receive both pieces of information — he only got here because of nepotism and he won’t do anything significant as an NBA player in part because he wasn’t even supposed to be here — and still celebrate it as a massive accomplishment, something that even contributes something to LeBron’s legacy. I’d be remiss if I didn’t grit my teeth and acknowledge that the fact that LeBron has lasted enough for this to have even been hypothetically possible is impressive. But if that is the extent of it, which based on even the arguments of those defending Bronny’s selection it seems to be, nothing has been added to his legacy in the last 7 days.

Honestly I’m not even bothered if you’re excited by the prospect of this. It will be entertaining in some fashion. What bothers me is the hypocrisy. The downplaying of things like nepotism or the qualifying skill level while also celebrating this as a tremendous accomplishment. Not to mention the instances of nepotism many defending the decision cite are much less egregious in that they’re likely to be much more successful in the long-term than this one, and even many of the nepo-babies in other situations were more qualified for their roles.

With so much going on in the NBA the last couple days, the Rockets trade with the Nets has gone almost completely under the rug. I’ve looked at it every way, and it seems like such an irrational move with only a slim path of playing out for them.

Here’s the trade:

Nets receive: - 2025 1st (theirs) - 2026 1st (theirs)

Rockets receive: - 2025 1st swap (best of Hou/Okc/Suns) - 2027 1st (Suns) - Two 2029 1st rights (best two of Hou/Dal/Suns)

Let’s look at the outlook of all the teams involved: - Nets: With trading Mikal, they have entered tank mode and rebuild. Best player is now Claxton/Cam Thomas. Tied for lowest champion odds in the league next year, likely a bottom five team. With a good pick, maybe some improvement for 2026. Likely still a bottom ten team. - Rockets: Nearly made playoffs last season, extremely young with great prospects. Likely two to three seasons out from being a legitimate contender, need to focus on player development for now. Will eventually need to consolidate roster, and make some moves to become a top tier team. - Suns: Still have a strong core, but the team isn’t deep enough and doesn’t have the assets to solve it. Playoff team as long as they keep Dbook and KD together, probably not a true championship contender. Dbook is signed for the long term, KD still has two more seasons. They own essentially no picks, so only way to build around this squad is savvy free agency moves/trades. The other option is blowing it up. - Thunder: Young team with insane depth. 1st seed in West last year likely a legitimate contender for at least five years. But if played right, with their stockpile of picks they can be a top tier team for a decade. - Mavericks: Fresh off a finals appearance. Not the best roster in the league, but regardless as long as you have a guy like Luka, you are a legitimate contender. Luka is locked up for the next three seasons. If they resign him, expect Mavericks to be a pillar of playoff basketball for the 2020s.

Let’s talk about the assets (chronologically):

1. Nets 2025 1st: Likely top five pick, in a generally well liked draft class. Potential for Cooper Flagg.
2. Best of OKC/HOU/PHO 2025 1st: OKC is likely irrelevant in this swap, seem extremely likely to finish ahead of both teams. Two scenarios realistically, either a mid to late pick from the Suns or Rockets or an early pick in the event the Suns break up the entire team. With no major moves, the Suns are firmly a playoff team likely a top six seed in the West (currently fifth favorite to win West). Houston has a wider range of outcomes, think the most likely is somewhere in the play in range but behind the Suns. Now in the scenario the Suns trade KD and Booker and blow it up, this would quickly become an extremely valuable pick. But will this happen?
3. Nets 2026 1st: They likely improve year over year with the potential of their draft pick from the previous year panning out but also with landing a free agent. However, this would firmly still be in their rebuild period. I think it’s pretty conservative to say this is certainly still a lottery pick, likely trending towards the top 10. Would need to see serious improvements for them to make a playoff run.
4. Suns 2027 1st: Booker is still under contract through this season. Durant would be able to opt out prior to this season. With just Booker, this current Suns team would be a fringe playoff squad, producing a solid draft piece. In the event Durant leaves, they likely try to capitalize on him prior to free agency where they could maybe get some support for Booker and improve the squad. If Durant resigns (unlikely), they probably still remain a firm playoff team. Then there is the scenario, where the Suns broke up the whole team the year prior. This case produces a valuable draft pick probably top 5-7.
5. Best Two of HOU/DAL/PHO 2029 1st: Hard to predict this far out. Houston theoretically should be a firm playoff level team at this point, given their youth and assets. Dallas assuming Luka remains in town, should also be firmly in the playoffs. Phoenix is a major question mark here. They could ride out Booker and at this point would be an entirely different team around him. They could also blow it all up way earlier, already be nearly finished with their rebuild if done properly. Overall, wide range of outcomes with Phoenix here.

Summary: - Nets are receiving two high quality picks and the ability to control their own destiny again. Good chance, these are both top five picks. - Rockets outcome of this trade heavily depends on the Suns team management. If the Suns don’t actively blow it up, the 2025 swap would most likely be outside of the lottery with Houston’s own pick having the highest chance to convey. The 2027 pick has wider range of possibilities, at this point KD will probably not be a piece of the Suns. Then with the two 2029 picks, the order of value probably goes 1. PHO 2. HOU 3. DAL but a lot can happen by then.

The Big Question: - Will the Suns blow it up? Houston is banking on this. They put themselves in the position, similar to the Nets, where they now control that decision somewhat. Their hope is they can now make a play for a KD or Booker if/when the Suns decide to blow up. Realistically, only KD is at risk of getting moved this season. My fear, if I were the Rockets, would be if they decide to try to trade KD for guys who can slot right in next to Booker right off the bat, rather than draft assets. As in, opt for the retool rather than the rebuild. This is the situation where Houston gets absolutely screwed, and in my opinion the most likely to happen. The Suns are going to want to capitalize on KD before he leaves in free agency. That could be this season or next season. I won’t really get into fit, although I think it’s terrible, but Houston will be targeting KD this offseason. If they can’t make the Suns budge the 2025 pick acquired becomes valueless. And if the Suns decide to sell KD this offseason, does Houston’s offer of the Suns 25 and 27 1st’s plus other assets beat what other squads will offer. I don’t think so. Even to them, those picks aren’t that valuable if they still have Booker and Beal. At best, probably late lottery. Have to imagine other teams will offer more appealing firsts, or have the ability to offer solid players. The Rockets have depth to offer as well, but partially comes down to what assets they’d actually be willing to ship. I haven’t exactly heard a convincing argument that Booker is going to leave prior to his next contract or that he would be traded. Ultimately, if the Suns don’t sell the whole team prior to or semi early into the season, the Rockets will strike out on these draft picks majorly. Especially, when you look at what those Nets picks might yield.

Concessions: - The Rockets will still be able to trade these picks if/when other moves become available. They’ll hold some value in that regard. - Rockets weren’t able to get Mikal, which made the Nets picks more variable prior to trading.

The Rockets have sandwiched themselves into a tough situation. This trade pans out well in two ways. They trade these new picks and acquire KD (they consider that good, I think he’s a total mismatch for this team) or the Suns trade KD and Booker and enter full rebuild this offseason/season. Both of those just seem so unlikely to me, which I why I can’t understand what the Rockets front office was thinking. Right about this time next year the Nets could be waking away with Flagg and the Rockets could have traded for a 25 swap that wouldn’t convey.

EDIT: It was clear this trade was contingent on the Nets-Knicks trade. Didn’t think it was even worth mentioning. However, that doesn’t justify this trade. They could’ve held out longer on the Nets and kept control of their franchise, instead of giving in. They also gave in to a trade that didn’t have enough assets. The Nets just received an absolute influx of picks. How was their nothing else added to the Houston side? Whatever way it was drawn up and the order of how things went, as soon as the Rockets were given this offer or were told the Knicks are in the final stages, the value of those two picks went up astronomically. Now sure if they tank this trade, the picks go down in value. But still more valuable than the Suns pick, if they can’t acquire KD. Shouldn’t the front office have learned from their Nets “blackmail” attempt, that it probably will not work again. Those Nets picks were lottery picks no matter what way anything is spun. Those Suns picks have a very good chance of not being in the lottery outside of the 2029 picks.

Off the top of my head, Magic & Tim Duncan were the only newcomers who won basically as soon as they entered the league. Maybe Bird too, since he won the year after Magic, but he was also drafted a year before Magic. Ofc Kareem & Robinson already being on the team obv helped instead of Wemby's current supporting cast.

Then you have Shaq (year3), LeBron (year4), & KD (year5) who made it to the Finals early-on only to lose in outright sweeps (Shaq & LeBron) or gentlemen's sweeps (KD). These 3 all suffered 5 (coincidentally exactly 5) more years of losses before they finally won their 1st title, but not with the team that had originally drafted them.

So over the last 50-years, that's only 2 franchise-cornerstone guys who won it all ASAP (Magic & Duncan). Maybe 3 (Bird). Another 3 who enjoyed some early playoff success but ultimately lost their 1st Finals. That's it.

I think most agree Wemby is the closest "generational prospect" entering draft-day since Shaq, Duncan, LeBron & KD. I say that as the farthest thing from a Spurs fan. That's not to say all other draftees have been disasters--only that they weren't drafted expecting them to shoulder the burden of turning a franchise around.

Amazingly, Wemby's rookie season actually matched the hype. But how does him starting his career losing so much w/ such a weak supporting cast compare to say Duncan?

Looking through Sam Hauser's college stats, I'm honestly shocked no team thought to select him in the middle to late second round. Dude has good size, can rebound, and is efficient offensively. He also has a quick release and shot well off the catch.

Hell I feel if Hauser was in this year's draft he's probably going early second round, or very late first round.

Am I wrong? Am I missing something here?

It got me thinking when the Celtics drafted Scheierman last night in the first round as an obvious replacement for Hauser but even looking through stats Hauser had better stats than Scheierman did and better size for a wing.

I guess I’m triggered by a lot of hate towards the Knicks right now for putting all their chips in even though they will likely fail to win a chip. “If you can’t win it all, why bother?” is such a stupid attitude. I have been on this earth for 42 years and only 12 teams have won a championship during that period. That means 18 fan bases haven’t won a chip in my lifetime. Does that make it a failure?

The reality is that there are only a handful of players in the league that you can point to and say “when you have that guy you need to go all in because he can carry a team to a title”. Joker, Giannis and Luca are pretty much it for that list. There is a larger handful of guys that can theoretically carry a team with a serious support system, by catching breaks or by young guys moving up a level (the Tatum/Embiid/Ant etc type players). 

What are you supposed to do if you don’t have one of those guys? Fold up and go home? Process your way into oblivion? Move your team to Seattle? 

Just because you didn’t win a chip, doesn’t mean you were unsuccessful. NY, Indiana, Minny, Dallas and OKC had amazing seasons. Their fan bases should be proud of their teams and celebrate it.

Back to the Knicks. I get that Brunson/Randle aren’t the tandem you’d like to build your team around. I know they have serious flaws. But what should Leon and his staff do? Trade Brunson to OKC for draft capital? Let OG walk? 

With the MB trade they put themselves in position to be the second best team in the East. Second behind Boston, who has an injury prone center and ancient 6th man. They have a path to the finals. Can they lose to Philly or Milwaukee? Yes. If everyone is healthy will Boston wax them? Probably. So what?

They kept their flexibility for 3 years while building a competent team (the first for NY since the 90s). At this point, they don’t have any other options. Brunson is eligible for an extension next year and all these other contracts are coming up. Luca just went to the finals and likely isn’t demanding a trade anytime soon. Giannis just missed back to back playoffs and probably isn’t demanding a trade either.

They saw the landscape and realized MB would help them take this team to the next level. He is the best bet right now. They may have overpaid (who doesn’t), but let's be realistic. 3 of the 5 picks are going to be mid 20s. Not super valuable. Yes, they gave up 2029 and 31 picks that can be a disaster. You know who else did that? Minny for a mediocre prospect in this year's draft.  Its called maximizing their current window.

Never celebrate mediocrity, but celebrate teams maximizing their window. Even if it doesn’t make them a title favorite. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

So a bit of background here: I’ve mostly been a football (soccer) fan and I’ve been getting into basketball lately. The 2023-24 season was the first season I watched properly, and I have been reading up a lot about the sport too (records, all time greats etc.). So I am still a bit new to the sport. One thing I couldn’t help but notice is that the traits of playmaking and defence are nowhere near to the ability to score in terms of value. I often see such players being tagged “role players” who are really good in the paint / really good at rebounding etc, but are never placed in the same category as the pure elite scorers.

I understand that, to be at an all star level, one has gotta be really good at more than one aspect of the game, but it doesn’t change the fact that the sport as a whole favours offensive traits to creative/defensive traits. Pure guards (like CP3, Stockton or Jason Kidd) who are arguably the greatest passers/pure playmakers the game has ever seen are never put on the same pedestal as the greatest scorers of the game (like KD for instance). Compare this to football where the players who are the greatest defenders/pure playmakers would easily break into the top 10 OAT debate. I often see the “pass first” players be demeaned, even though they are essentially generating the same value and are essential in generating points.

I’m trying to understand where the inherent offensive bias in the sport stems from, and why this is the case.

One of the biggest issue with the LAC this year and specifically during the playoffs was Kawhi health and availability. It has just been announced that Kawhi is expected to be ready for the Olympics.

How do you feel about him missing the playoffs a few months ago, but is available now for the Olympics? Do you think he should skip the Olympics and just focus on getting healthy for a full NBA season? How much longer should the Clippers continue to support Kawhi if he is always hurt when it counts the most, during the playoffs?

These are the picks that either make really sense to me or confuse me, considering their draft order and the needs of the team making the pick. I wonder what you all think because I don't know much about college basketball and the prospects in this draft. Here is my list:

Pick #5, Ron Holland by Pistons: I won't pretend to know Holland's game well but he wasn't projected this high for the most and aside from that he is clearly a non-shooter and I thought lacking shooters is one of the top problems of Detroit. I am really confused on this one. (EDIT: Comments are explaining this one a lot, so I am taking this out of my personal confusion list but keep it here of course.)

Pick #8, Rob Dillingam to Wolves: This makes perfect sense even though it is considered risky. Conley does not have all the time left and he has been very important for them all season and the play-offs. This is a prospect that can develop under Conley while coming off the bench and replace him in the future to play alongside with Ant. Wolves making a move upwards in the draft to address this kind of long-term need seems to me as good management to maintain success.

Pick #9, Zach Edey by Grizzlies: This makes real sense too. Grizzlies have been looking for a certain type of center and they just tried to get that exact type from the draft. Edey is seen one of the NBA-ready prospects as far as I know, so a good match for a team trying go back to contention after a season of getting the worst injury luck.

Pick #12, Nikola Topic by OKC: Well, this one might get my attention because I know better about Euroleague than college basketball but it really made sense to me when I saw it. They just sent Giddey for Carruso, and proceed to get a similar ball-handler from the draft. Topic could be better than Giddey as a ball-handler in the long run and isn't worlds apart even now. If you consider their trade and this pick together, this makes a lot of sense, especially if you also consider contract and cap projections.

Pick #22, DaRon Holmes to Nuggets: They are need of a back up center, they simply go for that with a mid-late first round pick. For a contending team having problems with second apron and focusing on getting back their depth first an foremost, it was just most logical thing to do. They also didn't risk to wait until their pick at 28 and move upwards to get what they already decided to.

Pick #23, AJ Johnson by Bucks: This is by far the most confusing one to me. Even if they saw something (and I am sure they did), it still does not make any sense: 1) They are trying to content, he seems to need time to develop. 2) They have another pick at 33 and Johnson is not projected anywhere near the first round. They could wait to pick him there and use this pick for other purposes even if there isn't anyone that caught their interest. They most probably had other targets picked right before them and they panicked, but still. They just got their second round pick in the first round, it seems like a total waste of the pick to me, it won't be justified even if he turns into a rotation player in time.

Pick #30, Baylor Scheierman by Celtics: He has everything Celtics would like for a future bench/rotation piece between 7-10 spots: Move well off-ball to get open or involve in screening actions to help others, make your shots quickly when you are wide-open (and you get those in Celtics offense) and pass the ball if you are not open. He is good at all of them. Even if he won't develop his defense like Hauser did, he will perfectly fit somewhere in the rotation. And he is not a long-term raw project. He may well be ready to replace Hauser a season later if they lose him. Again a good maintenance move at a very late FRP for a team that has to make those moves in the margins.

So all in all, I got 5 picks that make real sense and 2 real confusing ones. I can't really order them but feel free to do that. One more thing I noticed after I started to write: 4 of those good picks came from Western teams. And the ones that are more confusing are from two Eastern teams. I am sure I am missing a lot, others will see a lot more so I wonder if this is the case for most or it happens to be about what I was able to see.

REALIGNMENT:

To make scheduling easier, each of the 2 conferences would have 4 divisions with 4 teams in each division. The following realignment would require the least amount of travel (Mileage Calculated By Computer).

EASTERN CONFERENCE

WESTERN CONFERENCE

REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE:

4 games each vs. all 3 division opponents = 12 games

(2 Home & 2 Away vs. each team)

3 games each vs. all 12 non-division opponents within conference = 36 games

(2 Home & 1 Away vs. each of 6 teams [2 from each division])

(1 Home & 2 Away vs. each of 6 teams [2 from each division])

Extra home game between teams would rotate each season.

2 games each vs. all 16 non-conference opponents = 32 games

(1 Home & 1 Away vs. each team)

12 games + 36 games + 32 games = 80 preliminary regular season games

1 additional game each vs. 2 non-divisional opponents within conference TBD based on how the in-season tournament plays out = 2 games

80 games + 2 games = 82-game regular season

NEW IN-SEASON TOURNAMENT FORMAT:

Cup Games:

Divisions would serve as groups for the in-season tournament. Teams would play 6 cup games per season in group play. Each team’s 1st regular season home game and 1st regular season away game vs. each of its 3 division opponents would be counted as cup games. Cup games would only take place on designated cup nights which would be every Tuesday and Friday from a timespan from the 1st week in November up until about the week before Christmas. Designated cup nights would consist exclusively of cup games.

Qualifying Teams for Knockout-Round:

8 total teams would qualify for the single-elimination knockout round of the tournament. The team in each division with the best standing in cup games would qualify for the single-elimination knockout round of the tournament. Qualifying teams would be ranked #1-#4 within respective conferences based on standing in cup games.

The 24 teams that don't qualify for the knockout round would play 2 additional regular season games (discussed later).

Tiebreakers implemented as applicable:

First, the head-to-head record between teams in cup games. Second, the point differential in head-to-head between teams in cup games. Third, the overall point differential in cup games. Fourth, the previous season regular season records.

Knockout Round Format:

The Quarterfinals of the knockout round would feature (#1 vs. #4) and (#2 vs. #3) in each conference. The 4 Quarterfinals games would all take place on Christmas Day (Dec. 25th) in Louisville, KY split 2 and 2 between KFC Yum Center and Freedom Hall. The winners from the Quarterfinals in each conference would play each other in the Semifinals 3 days later (Dec. 28th) at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO. The losers in each conference would face each other in a regular season game at the venue where they were originally scheduled to play only once in the preliminary regular season schedule on either Dec. 29th or Dec. 30th. The Semifinals winners from each conference would face off in the In-Season Cup Championship on New Year's Eve (Dec. 31st) also at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO.

Games played in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals would count toward the regular season. However, the Cup Championship would NOT count toward the regular season.

In-Season Tournament Awards:

The team that wins the In-Season Championship would receive the cup, a $1 million bonus for each of its players and coaches for the season and also would hold any tiebreaker in the standings at the end of the regular season. The runner-up team's players and coaches would each receive a $250k bonus for the season. The players and coaches of the 2 teams that lose in the semifinals of the tournament would receive a $125k bonus for the season. The players and coaches of the 4 teams that lose in the quarterfinals of the tournament would receive a $50k bonus for the season.

Teams That Failed To Qualify For Knockout Round:

The 24 teams that fail to qualify for the knockout round of the in-season tournament would each be assigned 2 additional regular season games (1 Home & 1 Away). Here is how they would be decided:

In each division, the 3 teams that don't qualify for the knockout round of the in-season tournament would be ranked #1-#3 within respective division based on their regular season records the previous season. Each team then would play 2 of its non-divisional conference opponents with a similar ranking (1 vs. 1’s, 2 vs. 2’s, 3 vs. 3’s). Teams would play one of these games on either Dec. 26th or Dec 27th and the other one on either Dec. 29th or Dec. 30th. The assigned divisions which the 2 opponents come from would rotate on a yearly basis. Teams would each play one of these opponents at home and the other away (Accounting for home & away, assigned division rotations would have a 6-year cycle.) See link below for how the 6-year cycle would work:

https://imgur.com/a/a9l3G8M

NEW ALL-STAR GAME FORMAT:

For the All-Star Game, the East vs. West format would be used. However, each individual player selected for the All-Star Game would chose a charity of their choice which they would like to donate money too. Each player on the winning team would get $500k which would go to their selected charity. The players on the losing team would walk away empty-handed. The winning charities donated to can’t be recycled. Instead of the normal 4-quarter game, the All-Star game would be like a pick-up game where first team to 100 wins. Dead ball substitutions would be allowed and each team would be allowed 10 timeouts each throughout the game.

NEW PLAY-IN & PLAYOFF FORMAT:

In each conference, the 4 division winners along with the next 6 best regular season records would be seeded #1-#10 strictly by regular season record within respective conference. This would mean that a non-division winner could be seeded higher than a division-winner.

The #1-#6 seeded teams in each conference would qualify for the playoffs and advance straight to the First Round. The #7-#10 seeded teams in each conference would have to participate in the play-in round to determine the final 2 playoff spots in each conference.

The Play-In Tournament:

For the first games of the play-in tournament in each conference, (#7 seed would host #8 seed) and (#9 seed would host #10 seed). The winner of the #7 vs. #8 game would qualify for the playoffs and be seeded #7 in respective conference for the First Round. The loser of the #9 vs. #10 game would be eliminated from playoff contention. For the last game of the play-in tournament in each conference, the loser of the #7 vs. #8 game would host the winner of the #9 vs. #10 game. The winner of that game would qualify for the playoffs and be seeded #8 in respective conference for the First Round. The loser would be eliminated from playoff contention.

THE PLAYOFFS:

Eastern Conference First Round & Western Conference First Round:

Would be (#1 Seed vs. #8 Seed), (#2 Seed vs. #7 Seed), (#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed) and (#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed).

Best-of-7 series (2-2-1-1-1 format). Higher seed would get home-court advantage.

Eastern Conference Semifinals & Western Conference Semifinals:

Would be (#1/#8 Seed vs. #4/#5 Seed) and (#2/#7 Seed vs. #3/#6 Seed).

Best-of-7 series (2-2-1-1-1 format). Higher seed would get home-court advantage.

Eastern Conference Finals & Western Conference Finals:

Would be the 2 surviving teams vs. each other for Conference Championships.

Best-of-7 series (2-2-1-1-1 format). Higher seed would get home-court advantage.

NBA Finals:

The 2 Conference Champions would square off for the NBA Championship.

Best-of-7 series (2-2-1-1-1 format). Better regular season record would get home-court advantage.

I mean Hakeem had his pretty good era of dominance back when he played but I feel it was just outplayed and just a little bit under-recognised due to the amount of focus there was on other centers and players too in that era. Hakeem is still considered one of the best defensive players to ever play, but whenever someone brings up a topic of who they'd play as a big offense+defense option, people probably go with Shaq. I feel the reason for this could be cause when Shaq played, his skills weren't overlooked because there was no other big to dominate the game in that era along with Shaq.

The Knicks have just traded 5 1sts for Mikal Bridges in what seems to me, an extreme overpay. I'll state the obvious thing first, the Knicks are obviously better and having Bridges on your team is great.

However, what it cost to trade for him compared to recent trades for similar players, you notice how absurd the price is.

The Knicks acquired OG for RJ, Quickley and a 2nd round pick. Bridges is better offensively, OG is better defensively. OG is super injury prone, Bridges is an iron man. Also, the Knicks have to pay OG this offseason. Taking all this into account, I still don't understand why Bridges cost 5 1sts compared to OG costing 2 role players and 2nd.

Siakam was acquired for three first round picks and role player salaries. However, 2 of these 3 picks are for tomorrow's draft class. Which is a notoriously weak class. Siakam, like OG, is due for a payday so that contributed for why he was so cheap. However, as shown in the playoffs, Siakam is a way better basketball player than Bridges.

Considering the market for these versatile skilled wings, I don't understand why the Knicks coughed up so many assets for Bridges? Is it a Nova thing?

As things stand now, at this moment in time, the Knicks have sent out $4,267,135 less than they took in. This means that they'd be hardcapped at Apron 1 as a result of taking back more than they sent out.

Solution: Send out more salary in this simultaneous trade via DaQuan Jeffries ($2,463,946), Mamadi Diakite ($2,273,252), and/or Jericho Sims ($2,092,344).

Problem: Jeffries and Diakite were signed using the league minimum. Per the CBA, in a trade in which 3 or more players are aggregated and the team which aggregates these players is taking back fewer players than it sent out, that team can't aggregate more than 1 minimum contract.

Discussion: Jericho Sims was signed using a portion of the MLE. His salary might be usable in aggregation with Bogdanovic and one of Jeffries' or Diakite's. This is the first such instance of a "needs clarification" for this rule, and as such, beat reporters are currently reaching out to sources for further clarification. I'm refreshing X repeatedly to determine the outcome of this inquiry.

In the event that Sims' contract can NOT be used, we now have a problem. Deuce McBride or Mitchell Robinson then become the next player considered in this trade. The Knicks have been rumored to be shopping Robinson, and McBride is making $4,710,144 this coming season, allowing for his aggregation with one of the 3 aforementioned players, and Bojan. I'd imagine that if McBride was in this trade, he'd have been mentioned in the initial breaking report. If the Knicks indeed choose to send out Robinson and not McBride, they'd be caught in a VERY difficult situation, should Isaiah Hartenstein not re-sign. The only C on the roster would be Jericho Sims, assuming he's not the very minimum salaried player sent out in this very deal. I'd imagine the Knicks would retain one of Robinson or Sims in this deal though, but the prospect of trading for Bridges and ending up with Jericho Sims being C #1 with no cap flexibility is abysmal.

Discussion 2: In the event that NYK avoids the 1st Apron hard cap, they'd inevitably be capped at Apron 2 via aggregating salaries in a trade. This would not likely matter as NYK is not projected to spend more than Apron 2 affords, but it's notable nonetheless.

EDITS:

Edit 1: Can the Knicks select a player at #24 or #25 tonight and use that player in aggregation? I'm not sure...

Edit 2: Per Ian Begley, Jericho Sims' contract is treated as a minimum contract for the purposes of trades. Per the rules, it follows his current salary. He can not be aggregated along with Jeffries or Diakate in this trade. (12:49 pm, EST)

The centerpiece of one of last season's flagship NBA trade appears to be staying put.

Contract

The New York Knicks intend to sign forward OG Anunoby to a five-year, $212.5 million contract once free agency opens on Sunday, according to a Wednesday afternoon report from Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

Off-Season Moves

Reports emerged Monday that Anunoby, 26, would decline his 2025 player option and become a free agent. The Knicks' reported retention of Anunoby comes less than 24 hours after New York struck a deal to acquire forward Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets.

Knicks Success

The Knicks went 50-32 last season—their best record since 2013—and reached the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second straight year.

Injury Hurdles

Much of the injury-riddled team's success is attributable to Anunoby, who the team acquired from the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 30. While battling injuries, the Indiana product averaged 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game in 2023-24.

Since we now have the draft to look forward to, I did a deep dive into draft probabilities! 

I went through each draft class from 1978 to 2018 to determine the best player of that draft class (based on accolades, success, and perception from fans/media). I tracked a few other things like all-stars and MVPS.

There’s room for debate about which player was the best in each draft class, especially when accounting for more recent years, which is why I stopped in 2018. This is NOT a way to rank players. If there was another player in contention I included them in the list with their draft position in that year. For example, in 2002 Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire had very similar accolades and team success. I went with Amare at 9th for the percentages due to longevity, but could’ve gone either way.

Draft year & best player from that draft:

• 1956 - Bill Rusell 2nd
• 1959 - Wilt Chamberlain 3rd
• 1969 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1st
• 1978 - Larry Bird 5th
• 1979 - Magic Johnson 1st 
• 1980 - Kevin Mchale 3rd
• 1981 - Isiah Thomas 2nd 
• 1982 - Dominique Wilkens  3rd
• 1983 - Clyde Drexler 14th 
• 1984 - Michael Jordan 3rd (Hakeem 1st) 
• 1985 - Karl Malone 14th (Patrick Ewing 1st)
• 1986 - Dennis Rodman 27th
• 1987 - David Robinson 1st (Scottie Pippen 5th)
• 1988 - Mitch Richmond 5th
• 1989 - Tim Hardaway 14th 
• 1990 - Gary Payton 2nd 
• 1991 - Dikembe Mutumbo 4th
• 1992 - Shaquille O’Neal 1st
• 1993 - Chris Webber 1st
• 1994 - Jason Kidd 2nd 
• 1995 - Kevin Garnett 5th
• 1996 - Kobe Bryant 14th (Allen Iverson 1st)
• 1997 - Tim Duncan 1st 
• 1998 - Dirk Nowitzki 9th
• 1999 - Manu Ginobili 57th (Only one in hall of fame, others are Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, and Steve Francis)
• 2000 - Kenyon Martin 1st or Michael Redd 43rd (Both 1 year all star, Michael Redd has all NBA, Martin has a lot more team/playoff sucess, went with Martin)
• 2001 - Paul Gasol 3rd
• 2002 - Yao Ming 1st or Amare Stoudemire 9th (Similar accolades, Amare had longer career, went with Amare) 
• 2003 - Lebron James 1st 
• 2004 - Dwight Howard 1st 
• 2005 - Chris Paul 4th
• 2006 - LaMarcus Aldrige 2nd 
• 2007 - Kevin Durant 2nd 
• 2008 Russell Westbrook 4th (Derrick Rose 1st)
• 2009 - Steph Curry 7th
• 2010 - Paul George 10th 
• 2011 - Kawhi Leonard 15th
• 2012 - Anthony Davis 1st 
• 2013 - Giannis 15th
• 2014 - Nikola Jokic 41st 
• 2015 - Devin Booker 13th (Karl Anthony Towns 1st has a good argument)
• 2016 - Jaylen Brown 3rd (Sabonis 11th, Brandon Ingram 2nd)
• 2017 - Jayson Tatum 3rd
• 2018 - Luka Doncic 3rd (Shai also in class)

Total number of picks for each draft position having best player in draft class since 1978 out of 41 players:

• 1st - 10 (24.4%)
• 2nd  - 5 (12%)
• 3rd - 7 (17%)
• 4th - 3 (7%)
• 5th - 3 (7%)
• 6th - 0
• 7th - 1 (2.5%)
• 8th - 0 
• 9th - 1 (2.5%)
• 10th 1 (2.5%)
• 11th - 0 
• 12th - 0
• 13th - 1 (2.5%)
• 14th - 4 (8%)
• 15th - 2 (5%)
• 27th - 1 (2.5%)
• 41st - 1 (2.5%)
• 57th - 1 (2.5%)

Since 1978 out of 41 players:

30 1st overall picks were all-stars at least 1 time  

• 73%

22 1st overall picks were all-stars at least 3 times 

• 54%

8 1st overall picks were MVPs at least 1 time 

• 19.5%
• Magic Johnson, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, Lebron James, Derrick Rose

Probability of being an all-star based on pick location since 1989:

This data is based on an article from the Medium, it tracked drafts from 1989 up until 2019. Link to article at the end. The article is from 2020, I had to adjust some all-star nods over the past few years, so the numbers here and in the article won’t line up completely. 

Probability of all-star from draft location since 1989:

• Lottery Picks (1-14) - 119/420 = 28.3%
• Non Lottery Picks (1st round) - 37/449 = 8.2%
• Non lottery picks (2nd round) - 23/873 = 2.6 %

Lottery picks all-star probability since 1989: 

1. 21/30 = 70%
2. 13/30 = 43.3%
3. 18/30 = 60%
4. 11/30 = 36.7%
5. 12/30 = 30%
6. 6/30 = 20%
7. 5/30 = 16.7%
8. 1/30 = 3.3%
9. 10/30 = 33.3%
10. 8/30 = 26.7%
11. 6/30 = 20%
12. 1/30 = 3.3%
13. 5/30 = 16.7 %
14. 3/30 = 10%

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5#:~:text=When%20we%20move%20down%2C%20the,Star%20for%20the%202nd%20pick