r/FluentInFinance • u/The-Lucky-Investor • 11d ago

“Medicare for All” would save the U.S $5.1 Trillion over 10 years Discussion/ Debate

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/11/30/easy-pay-something-costs-less-new-study-shows-medicare-all-would-save-us-51-trillion
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u/imposta424 11d ago

How much would we save if overweight adults dropped to below 20%?

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u/GeekShallInherit 11d ago

Not much.

The UK recently did a study and they found that from the three biggest healthcare risks; obesity, smoking, and alcohol, they realize a net savings of £22.8 billion (£342/$474 per person) per year. This is due primarily to people with health risks not living as long (healthcare for the elderly is exceptionally expensive), as well as reduced spending on pensions, income from sin taxes, etc..

In the US there are 106.4 million people that are overweight, at an additional lifetime healthcare cost of $3,770 per person average. 98.2 million obese at an average additional lifetime cost of $17,795. 25.2 million morbidly obese, at an average additional lifetime cost of $22,619. With average lifetime healthcare costs of $879,125, obesity accounts for 0.99% of our total healthcare costs.

https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/overweight-obesity

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1038/oby.2008.290

We're spending 165% more than the OECD average on healthcare--that works out to over half a million dollars per person more over a lifetime of care--and you're worried about 0.99%?

Here's another study, that actually found that lifetime healthcare for the obese are lower than for the healthy.

Although effective obesity prevention leads to a decrease in costs of obesity-related diseases, this decrease is offset by cost increases due to diseases unrelated to obesity in life-years gained. Obesity prevention may be an important and cost-effective way of improving public health, but it is not a cure for increasing health expenditures...In this study we have shown that, although obese people induce high medical costs during their lives, their lifetime health-care costs are lower than those of healthy-living people but higher than those of smokers. Obesity increases the risk of diseases such as diabetes and coronary heart disease, thereby increasing health-care utilization but decreasing life expectancy. Successful prevention of obesity, in turn, increases life expectancy. Unfortunately, these life-years gained are not lived in full health and come at a price: people suffer from other diseases, which increases health-care costs. Obesity prevention, just like smoking prevention, will not stem the tide of increasing health-care expenditures.

https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/files/46007081/Lifetime_Medical_Costs_of_Obesity.PDF

For further confirmation we can look to the fact that healthcare utilization rates in the US are similar to its peers.

https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/salinas/HealthCareDocuments/4.%20Health%20Care%20Spending%20in%20the%20United%20States%20and%20Other%20High-Income%20Countries%20JAMA%202018.pdf

One final way we can look at it is to see if there is correlation between obesity rates and increased spending levels between various countries. There isn't.

https://i.imgur.com/d31bOFf.png

We aren't using significantly more healthcare--due to obesity or anything else--we're just paying dramatically more for the care we do receive.

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u/tiger32kw 11d ago

The obesity epidemic in the US is a HUGE health crisis that needs to be solved, but it’s not the core problem of our healthcare costs. It’s really a greed problem like many other things in the US.

Diabetes care is very costly, but as you outlined obese people with diabetes don’t live as long so cost per lifetime is lower. So I guess since they die sooner it’s a wash.

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u/Main_Chocolate_1396 11d ago

Phewww. Glad I don’t smoke.

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u/countdonn 11d ago

I did hear about this recently which goes against the common wisdom on the subject but the numbers do seem to back up that it can actually be cheaper if people die younger which things like obesity will cause.

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u/GeekShallInherit 11d ago

Which of course doesn't mean that helping people to be healthier isn't a valuable goal for society, but it doesn't tend to cost more money.

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u/redditusersmostlysuc 11d ago

Your links are all over the place. Being overweight puts people at greater risk for a lot of things. It says so right in the second like you post.

This study quantifies age-specific and lifetime costs for overweight (BMI: 25–29.9), obese I (BMI: 30–34.9), and obese II/III (BMI: >35) adults separately by race/gender strata. We use these results to demonstrate why private sector firms are likely to underinvest in obesity prevention efforts. Not only does the existence of Medicare reduce the economic burden that obesity imposes on private payers, but, from the perspective of a 20-year-old obese adult, the short-term costs of obesity are small. This suggests that legislation that subsidizes wellness programs and/or mandates coverage for obesity treatments might make all firms better off. Ironically, Medicare has a greater incentive to prevent obesity because when an obese 65 year old enters the program, his/her costs are immediate and higher than costs for normal weight individuals.

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u/GeekShallInherit 11d ago

Your links are all over the place.

They are all relevant.

Being overweight puts people at greater risk for a lot of things.

No kidding. You are intentionally oblivious to the point, aren't you?

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u/bellj1210 11d ago

you do have a current dollar value arguement here (better to pay 1 dollar per year for 10 years than 10 dollars now with inflation and ability to invest those other 9 dollars over the years).... but the point is that the obese person may cost more now, but they are likely dead by 70 only costing more for 5 years vs. the healthy person who lives another 20- and elderly end of life care is incredibly expensive for those who live into their 80ies and 90ies.

So you are not comparing 5 years of obese to 5 years of healthy, you are weighing 5 years of obese vs. 20 years of healthy weight- and that much longer time is 15 more years for other things to go wrong and cost a lot of money.

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u/Fluffy-Gur4600 11d ago

You sound fat.

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u/GeekShallInherit 11d ago

You sound like an intentionally ignorant fathead, who relishes being the kind of stupid that makes the world a worse place. Best of luck some day not being a waste of everybody's time and a pox on humanity.