r/thebulwark • u/grumpyliberal FFS • 2d ago

Exclusive: One in three Democrats think Biden should quit the race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/
6 Upvotes

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u/grumpyliberal FFS 2d ago

"Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama, wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup."

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u/solonmonkey 2d ago

A Michelle Obama / Liz Cheney ticket for the Presidency

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u/grumpyliberal FFS 2d ago

You are playing my song. I had originally hoped Biden would tap Cheney, but was not to be. We gotta reach across the aisle. I think they’d be great together. Tough minded but not without humor. Smart as whips and take no shit.

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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago

The thing is Trump is so fucking beatable, if Biden were to bow out earlier after the midterms, a younger Dem candidate would be up 8 points or more. I read a post on the Daily Beast that had a hypothetical poll of Michelle Obama vs. Trump, and she lead him by ten points. Now that might be some noisy poll, like say Taylor Swift would beat him by 13, but Harris is one point behind Trump in a couple of polls without a campaign.

Biden has been able to withstand all the crazies from his own far left flank in the Squad in the House to the MAGA wing on the other side, but now he is "Genocide Joe", is taking blame for the overturning of Wade, all this stupid shit coming from the fringes. But now the center has dropped. He's done. The debate performance was Aaron Rodgers blowing his Achilles in a few minutes into his first season with the Jets. Yet the Dems have better backup quarterbacks than Zach Wilson, but like the Jets, they are still the Dems. Owned by Woody fucking Johnson.

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u/noodles0311 1d ago

I’m glad these polls are coming in before the Holiday. The Biden circle has to take some time to come to grips with the fact the smoldering rumors of the last couple years broke out into a huge fire Thursday. Nobody in that inner circle is going to say anything that will change anyone’s mind because they have zero credibility. We have a chance for a mulligan right now, but we have to take it.

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u/evilbarron2 1d ago

Wait - so the bottom line is that 30% of Dems think Biden should drop out, but no real-world candidate does better than Biden?

Unless you’re saying that Michelle Obama is a realistic Democratic candidate for President?

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u/grumpyliberal FFS 1d ago

I think the polls show that name recognition is the name of the game at this point. Really not enough time to introduce someone new when the energy has to be on pummeling Trump. With Harris, policy is just pointing at Biden and saying, what he did. She would be right in the campaign saddle. With Michelle Obama, the policy is a continuation of Obama-Biden prosperity. Those two guys saved the economy twice. Plus, Michelle would have the other Obama right there for consultation. As a former President, he’d also be read in on most of the intelligence. In addition, she’s smart and accomplished in her own right.

The issue is if she’s willing to do it. Her girls are now women. How many Hawaiian vacations do the Obamas really need. We know she hated the danger and constant racism expressed toward her and her family when they were in the White House. It would only be worse with a red hot MAGA and Trump suffering the defeat to a Black woman named Obama. She might be enlisted. The stakes are incredibly high. But, Lordy, do we need you now Michelle Obama as number 47.

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u/ButGravityAlwaysWins Center Left 1d ago

The issue with the name, recognition argument is that if Biden was to drop out, the news would be covering the selection of the replacement almost constantly. Most of the voting population of the United States has either no memory or barely any memory of the convention being anything other than a coronation of a candidate long since decided on.

It wouldn’t have to be Michelle Obama or Kamala Harris. The convention could decide on a no Congressperson and they would have near total name recognition by the end.

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u/grumpyliberal FFS 1d ago

Old advertising saw — you need at least seven repetitions to make an impression. One news cycle will not fulfill that. Also, with the name there has to be some sense of who the person is. The only way this might work is if there’s a complete agreement on who the nominee will be, otherwise you have at least four and possibly six prospective candidates vying for attention and influence, perhaps trashing each other to get noticed. Of the nominee is seen to be the “pick” of the party insiders and super delegates alone, people will be demoralized. With Harris, it can at least be said that people voted for Biden AND he in a primary.