r/thebulwark • u/throwaway_boulder • 2d ago
The upside to Kamala
A black woman beating Trump would be the most epic possible rejection of Trumpism
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u/rom_sk 2d ago
She’s also really upped her game over the last several months. I think she could humiliate him In a debate. And id certainly sleep easy with her as president
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u/fakenamerton69 2d ago
He would obviously never debate her, idk why he would.
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u/rakkquiem 1d ago
His sense of superiority over all women and especially black women might compel him to show up.
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u/fakenamerton69 1d ago
If it were just him maybe. But I have a feeling he listens to his team more than people give him credit for. He won’t be making any more debates. He’s already won, why should the winner debate?
He’s the new presumptive king of nuclear land. He doesn’t need any more approval of the people. He has a solid 40ish percent of the population spread out correctly to occupy the states that matter. That’s the game baby.
That’s the beauty of democracy. You don’t need popular opinion, or a majority, or skills, or knowledge, or logic. No, that’s useless libcuck bull. Only soy boys would care about that. No, you just need to be able to talk confidently enough to get roughly 40% of the country to vote for you as long as they’re spread out proportionally in the 3-4 states that matter.
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u/pacard EDGELORD 2d ago
I think most of the Kamala downside is circular, people don't like her because they heard other people don't and it doesn't matter that much to them anyway, she's the VP. Barely anyone has seen her for more than 30 seconds, and the rest are weirdos like us who would vote for her anyway or MAGAs who won't support any Democrat.
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u/MB137 1d ago edited 1d ago
Other upsides (this is a paraphrase of JVL's case from the other day):
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-to-think-clearly-about-maybe
She gets to take over Biden's money and campaign. A different Biden replacement could not directly access the money and would have to build campaign infrastructure anew (maybe a bigger deal than the money?)
She's has the highest national name ID and the lowest possibility for real October surprises. This matters when, as JVL puts it, we're not looking at a 2 year campaign but a 120 day sprint.
The best chance to minimize a nasty intraparty factional fight over the nominee would be Joe Biden passing the baton to his VP, who promises
I'll add a couple of my own:
Abortion rights is a key issue in this campaign, and Harris will be better able to raise its salience than even a Biden who is on his game, never mind the mess we saw on Thursday.
It gives the Democrats the best chance to play the Gold Watch angle and to celebrate the accomplishments of Joe Biden even as they move on from him, which I think is a better direction for the party.
I also don't know which way the racism/sexism angle will play. If the GOP plays the race/sex cards aggressively enough, it may backfire.
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u/Kitchen-Scallion2782 2d ago
Another upside, we could get a new VP/fresh face to address certain weaknesses. Could help sell the new ticket for example
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u/thabe331 Center Left 1d ago
I get very nervous about Harris
Lots of Americans have awful views towards women and that goes double for black women.
The absolute worst men hate the idea of a woman who has a higher position than they do although I don't know what percent of them would vote for a dem either
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u/Goiabada1972 1d ago
I’ve seen a lot of things recently about his personal life that might put off some voters. I think Harris is smart, I love that she’s a woman of color, but I don’t know how she’d poll. I don’t like Whitmer as far as her personality, she is somewhat abrasive. I don’t know anything about Shapiro, he’d need a lot of PR to make him a known quantity. I like Andy Bashear but I’m not even sure how to spell his name. I wish we had an option that looks like a sure thing. It all hinges on the swing states unfortunately. It’s ridiculous but those of us in total blue states don’t even count in this equation.
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u/Goiabada1972 1d ago
When I say he I mean Gavin Newsom
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u/Goiabada1972 1d ago
Gosh, meant red states, I’m not awake yet.
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u/hydraulicman 1d ago
For
low informationnormie voters who don’t follow politics closely, she’s really the only choiceFrankly, she’s been baked in as “probably going to be president when Joe dies, ‘cause he’s ooolld” in every voters head since 2020
She’s the only candidate that the majority of normies can be persuaded to accept in the short time left
There’s probably better candidates in the wings, but people don’t know about them. And end of the day, it’s not about the best president anymore. It’s about the president we can get across the finish line who won’t be a criminal, because any president has a blank check now
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u/_awacz 2d ago
I've gone back and forth on Kamala, but ultimately I feel she'll end up being another Hillary situation. I just don't think a black (even though she's half) woman is what is the best odds right now. Maybe keep her as VP, but it's go big or just lose right now. I'm still all in with a Newsom or Shapiro + Harris ticket.
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u/atomfullerene 2d ago
A lot of people seem to hate Newsom. I'm from the Southeast and live in California, and people from back home just spontaneously mention it to me, it actually happened today in fact. They think Newsom is destroying California. I dunno, it's not like everything's perfect out here but it's...fine? At least where I live. But that's not the impression people seem to have.
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u/Capital-Giraffe-4122 1d ago
If Biden drops out it's going to be Harris, it already would be chaotic but Kamala getting pushed aside would be off the charts, the Party would implode
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u/actual_poop 1d ago edited 1d ago
You can’t have both from the same state, so Newsom is out. I live in PA and would love Shapiro in the White House, but I think him being Jewish is even more of a liability with the Gaza left than “genocide Joe.”
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u/_awacz 1d ago
Being Jewish, I guess I was blinded by the notion that it would be cool for Shapiro being Jewish, but the anti-semitism is worth discussing.
It was said they all have a clean slate on Gaza at this point.
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u/actual_poop 1d ago
I’ll be honest the left flank has an antisemitism problem. As much as they’ll handwave anti Zionism and Bernie and whatever, it’s there.
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u/_awacz 1d ago
I have it in my (Jewish) family, a niece who's part of the "Jewish Voices for Peace", a literal Qatari funded anti-Israel organization. You can't argue with them either, they know you're wrong. I find arguing with them similar to q-anon level trumpers.
I've had this discussion for years, but there's a weird wrap around connection when you go either far enough left, or right to the other side. Like a quantum political tunnel lol
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u/actual_poop 1d ago
Yeah. Like Michigan is must win and it’s got one of the nuttiest campuses in the country in Anne Arbor and a large Muslim community that keeps electing an antisemite to congress and bluntly isn’t going to turn out to vote for a Jew. The state will probably be decided by a few thousand votes and we can’t afford to pass up even small gains.
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u/PorcelainDalmatian 2d ago
JFC. Honestly, JFC.
She’s one of the most unserious people in Washington. Nobody knows why she was on the ticket in the first place. She has no fan base. She has no constituency. Her poll numbers are horrible. She doesn’t help carry a swing state. Her reign has been totally and completely unremarkable. She’s a funt.
The fact that people are even discussing her leads me to believe that this is not a serious party, and this race is over. Does anyone actually think that Kamala fucking Harris is going to beat Donald Trump? Seriously?
If we need to keep her on the ticket to keep the fundraising money, then fine – she can be VP. But that’s as far as it can go, and it shouldn’t even go that far.
JFC, these morons.
JFC.
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u/ghosttarts 1d ago
The tone of this reply is unsettling in a way that is hard to nail down. Just very odd.
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u/sanverstv 1d ago
Harris is not unserious. She’s spent her career in public service. From local office to statewide (AG and US Senator) in the largest state in the union. She has nearly four years as VP under her belt. Just stop.
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u/Agile-Music-2295 2d ago
You remember her record as Attorney General right? People of color do.
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u/throwaway_boulder 2d ago
In the 2020 primaries I heard nonstop about Biden’s role in the Clinton crime bill, but then Jim Clyburn endorsed him and that was the end of that.
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u/Agile-Music-2295 2d ago
But I heard it live on NBC focus groups and again today. Also Clinton is white, so he is held to a different standard.
I believe republicans have a decent amount of oppo research on how she ran her office, ex-employees. The plan is to show her as the VP of chaos and missing in action.
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u/485sunrise 2d ago
She’s not going to win. She’s got a 51% approval among African American voters. Get a governor out there. Wes Moore, Andy Beshear, and Roy Cooper are some choices I see that can do it.
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u/ozymandiasjuice 2d ago
Both Biden and Trump have lower approval ratings, no? The question is what percentage of likely k voters would go for Kamala over Trump, vs. Biden over Trump. We can’t know for certain, but at this stage she can probably prosecute the case against Trump much better, and gain in popularity. Most of us will vote for a potted plant over Trump, so she just needs to pick up the people who think both sides are basically the same and think Trump is ‘vigorous’
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u/_awacz 2d ago
Prosecute a case? You're talking low information moronic Americans. It's not that's it's right or wrong, but it is what it is. It's all show and performance right now, and Newsom really wins that contest. Just go watch his Hannity interview.
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u/TrumpEpstein69 1d ago
She’s got a 51% approval among African American voters.
whats her disapproval rating?
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u/Kitchen-Scallion2782 2d ago
We are in fantasy land here but she could get any of those people as her...vp
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u/anothermatt8 2d ago
Him even having to debate her would drive him fucking nuts to the point that I don’t think he would. NOTHING pisses him off more than a black woman who holds him accountable.