r/thebulwark • u/stkristobal • 2d ago
Punditry gone amoc The Bulwark Podcast
As an outsider, I've not been raisen on punditry. We don't really do that where I'm from (Norway).
I mean, I appreciate it, but this particular cycle with Biden underlines how important it is not to get lost in punditry. Because it doesn't matter.
Biden decides. If he stays, you all have to vote for him. If he goes, you have to vote for whoever follows. I get that everyone is up in arms, but how much value does it really carry to have weeks on end of hand wringing and bed wetting and throwing out crazy ideas?
Why not focus on guests that can enlighten the situation? People from the administration that can shed some light on the process and actually are in the know? Someone where it may actually matter what they mean?
I mean, I love Tim. I think it's fair to let people ventilate thoughts. But it's going to become a true hamsterwheel real soon. It’s crazy season. And it's time to become pragmatic, realistic and constructive.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
I think this is a totally fair critique, but let me make the other case.
First, It's not just pundits, 72% of Americans now view Biden as mentally unfit for office, which includes almost a majority of Democrats. I had family and friends who never pay attention to politics freaking out and sending me messages watching the debate. All of my less political friends who I've asked about it have just given up about this election. They are still voting in the fall, but have lost any confidence we will win. So I think first off you have to identify that there is a real problem, not just an imagined one.
If Biden is going to be the nominee (and I'll vote for anyone over Trump), then he clearly needs to make changes to his campaign after last week's performance. The campaign's response so far has been..... let's say underwhelming. Yes the speech last night was good, but teleprompter speeches aren't going to move the needle at all on his mental fitness. I hear rumblings of town halls in the future, but nothing confirmed.
If a large chunk of the Biden coalition wants the campaign to change strategy to demonstrate his fitness and make an active case against Trump, how else could they do so if not by public pressure campaigns? We aren't the president's family, we aren't mega donors who can withhold funds, what are we supposed to do?
If the answer is "shut up and support Biden" we could try that, but I don't think that approach will work given the 72% mentioned above.
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u/HillbillyEulogy 2d ago
110% agree with all of this.
We need those pundits to call this out since media outlets like the NYT, WaPo, CNN, and MSNBC seemed to "rethink" their positions on Biden stepping down after a no-questions-answered come-to-jesus with the DNC last weekend.
Besides, if you heavily disagree with something a pundit says, you're free to skip to the next one. Without these voices challenging the DNC's "shut up, this is fine" approach to party unity, we're skipping towards autocracy.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree. But the process is that Biden decides. He has the delegates. No opinion from any of the pundit class will move that needle one inch. That is reality. So we can circle jerk and feel like we are right. But so what? One can actually be right to the point that it tanks him completely. The responsible thing is to build up under reality. And reality is that it may or may not be Biden. Either way the Ds need 100% support.
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u/Regular_Mongoose_136 Center Left 2d ago
I mean, to the extent the punditry class reflects the views of the voting public (which I understand can often not be the case), I think it's good for the Biden camp to be hearing about how his constituents feel at this moment regarding his electability and capacity to perform the job. Here, I think it's pretty clear that a substantial amount of Democrats are feeling the exact sentiments that certain pundits, such as Tim, have expressed.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
I'll never accept this as more than a bare minimum effort. Have on Pete Buttigeg, have on Jill Biden, have on ANY of the people running the campaign. And if they won't come on - make sure everyone knows they decline. That's keeping people responsible. Shouting into an ecco chambers makes zero difference.
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u/Regular_Mongoose_136 Center Left 2d ago
Perhaps I misunderstood your point. I thought you were saying pundits should layoff the Biden skepticism and fall in line. It appears you're saying they should take it even further - which I have no strong opinion one way or the other about.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
No, I'm saying be constructive whatever the path ahead is. Influence the right people, and make their case to them if that's what they feel is right, but don't be an armchair quarterback in the fight for democracy. Be clear that you support whatever the outcome is and fight the fight. Don't bitch and moan on the side lines.
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u/Sherm FFS 2d ago
I feel like if you want Biden to know what you think, you're a lot better off writing him a letter or email than tossing up tweets or comments on a random news aggregator. I mean, I do this because it's my pointless nerdy hobby. But sometimes it feels like people think they're actually changing the world by doing this.
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u/Regular_Mongoose_136 Center Left 1d ago
We were discussing the impact of pundits (i.e., Tim), not me. Obviously us normal folks’ commentary doesn’t mean shit to anyone with real influence.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
I think this gets to a fundamental question though: If Biden feels zero pressure to drop out, then why would he drop out?
The whole point of the pressure campaign is to get him to change his strategy or pass the torch to someone who can.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
But who are they pressuring? Biden doesn't care about Tom Nichols or JVL, or any of these people. Zero people with access to the president are on any of these shows, ever. And that it horrifying negligence to me. There are no style points or karma points to be had here. It doesn’t matter if you're right if you don't make an effort to move the needle.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
It's a public pressure campaign. People use it all the time to get elected officials to respond to those not in power. It's one of the most important functions of media in a free democracy.
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u/Bawbawian 2d ago
lololol is that what you think you are doing?
clean up your social media posts kid cause Trump's gonna come for us.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
Let me lay out 2 approaches to you:
- pressure campaign builds, Biden finally relents and starts holding town halls, actively campaigning and making the case against trump in ways that demonstrate his fitness for office
- Biden campaign makes zero changes, we all shut up, and refuse to say anything negative about him from now until noevember. They don't hold public events that are unscripted, continue the exact same campaign they have been running the last 6 months
Which scenario are you more optomistic about Biden's chances?
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
And it doesn't work. How many elected officials have ever change their stance or stepped down over the past decade for being corrupt self serving assholes vs how many there are? Biden is neither, but if all the pressure is three degrees removed from him - how is that even real pressure or accountability?
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago edited 2d ago
It works constantly.
Dropping out: Al Franken, and Chris Cuomo off the top of my head.
Changing stances:
Biden posture towards Israel/Palestine
Biden rescheduling marijuana
Obama on Same Sex Marriage
Those are just off the top of my head. Outside activists (including media pundits) frequently coordinate to pressure elected officials to better respond to the public. It's the core mechanism of pluralism working.
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u/PublicFurryAccount 2d ago
You forgot Stephen Breyer.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
Totally, thank you! There are so many examples of this happening, particularly with policy decisions.
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u/lex1006 Orange man bad 2d ago
They do care about campaign donations though.
I'm a small fry so I'm not going to pretend my contribution alone makes any difference. But enough people exerting financial pressure can send a signal.
I've decided not to contribute any more money to the Biden campaign. That money is going to the ACLU instead. They will need it.
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u/evilbarron2 2d ago
I agree with your take.
I posted this elsewhere, and it’s about a podcast from different group of political analysts, but I think it applies.
——
The thing that strikes me about this conversation is that while these guys all acknowledge that this election is a Black Swan, they clearly haven’t internalized that idea because they’re still very comfortable making broad proclamations about what will or won’t happen with breathtaking certainty.
Predictions in the political arena are always tough - it’s easy to get out over your skis and faceplant. Particularly so this year.
I’m really just a novice political observer, but I do have deep experience with organizational problem-solving. A big part of that is recognizing good and bad advice and evaluating how applicable it is to a given situation. I can recognize flawed logic when I see it. I really believe these guys - and by extension the entire political commentator class - would be better served being a little more humble in approaching the current election.
Much as I enjoy and admire these guys, I’m a little bit embarrassed for them when they make these deterministic statements and don’t even realize when they contradict themselves literally seconds later.
I get the sense this campaign has broken our political analyst’s brains.
I get that these guys make their living telling us what’s going to happen, but I think we’d all be better served if they were more comfortable saying “We’re off the map here, anything can happen, and I have no fuckin’ clue“.
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u/rogerwilcove 2d ago
First off it'd be the campaign staff rather than the administration officials. The campaign is closing ranks and has been since Thursday and if they're putting out fires it's with the donors and elected Dems; podcasts are probably pretty low on their lists of priority.
If Biden wanted to communicate that he doesn't care about public opinion because ultimately it's his decision as we can agree then he's free to do so, but he doesn't because part of the legitimacy of his role as candidate is that backing of the party and supporters of the party.
So the punditry is in some part to shape but also reflect the sentiment. You can kind of trace this "heritage" back to the days of monarchy when the nobles would band together to petition the king. Suffice to say it's debatable whether the only constructive action is to be complete loyalists despite evidence that some path may be ruinous. People are going to want agency and it's tough to tell people that they have to just stay silent and hope one individual chooses to do the "correct" thing when that very silence would be taken as acquiesence.
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u/Familiar_Paramedic_2 2d ago
The main issue is the administration will not provide a plausible explanation as to what happened on Thursday, probably because the only one that exists would be cause for Biden to immediately drop out of the race. They also won’t put him in an unscripted environment where he can demonstrate his cognitive chops (because remember, he is still supposedly all there). We are now 5 days post-debate and all we have been given are scripted teleprompter appearances, which tell us nothing and reassure nobody except the wish-thinkers. This is why we are left with pundits.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
I don't disagree. But you know what? Tim and everyone of these pundits better HOUND the administration and be vocal about them refusing to address the situation. That would be responsible journalism. Loud and clear message that pressures those who can impact the future. Circle jerking with their peers ain't it. It just builds animosity.
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u/BernankesBeard 2d ago
Tim and everyone of these pundits better HOUND the administration and be vocal about them refusing to address the situation.
I mean, come on. People have been saying for months on end, that if Biden is truly fit enough to be President, then he needs to be out there everyday campaigning and visibly showing that he has the wherewithal to do this - far more than the limited schedule he's been on so far. He has not done this. All reporting indicates that he will not do this in the future.
Now the administration/campaign offers no explanation of what happened on Tuesday other than silly explanations that clearly don't explain what we saw ("he had a cold!", "he's got a stutter").
Sure, Tim and Co could criticize the campaign for not providing that explanation, but I think it's pretty easy to look at the situation and guess what the real answer is, why the campaign what say it and what that answer means for Biden's capacity to serve as the nominee and beyond that the President.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
I have seen zero efforts from the Bulwark or any democratic friendly outlet to hold the administration responsible. They talk about people and not TO them. That's not advocating for accountability. Have on someone who makes a lick of difference.
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u/ozymandiasjuice 2d ago
I’m sure Tim has already talked the ear off of anyone he has a connection to, but the campaign isn’t going to take a meeting with Tim Miller if they aren’t taking one from James Carville. The bulwarkers are journalists, and what they are doing is actually how journalists normally get parties to change…influence their voter base enough that pressure is put on them to do what voters want or risk losing their seats. What should really happen downstream is we should be calling our representatives and telling THEM to do something. They are the ones who CAN theoretically get a call with the president or his team. They are the ones who can publicly and privately call for a change in tactics.
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u/cornflakegrl Center Left 2d ago
I am seeing this too and wondering if this might be a sign he’ll ultimately drop out and they’re just getting their ducks in a row. We’ll see.
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u/Optimal-Ad-7074 2d ago
fingers crossed. I was neutral leaning defensive of him for the first day or two, because I trust and admire the og version of him so much. but last night's Scotus statement convinced me. it was fine, but it was like watching someone you love walk a tightrope. I feel like hunter's conviction might have taken something out of him. that's the narrative that helps me reconcile myself to the change from even a few months ago, anyway.
I think he'd be better off putting this burden down, and rn I hope he does. I could be fine with an unscripted Biden who stutters and takes his time and says Biden-blunt things, but there's just been a lack of edge to this last week that changes my mind.
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u/cornflakegrl Center Left 2d ago
Yeah you would think that they would have him front and centre in front of the media to dispel all the worries, but to have him just make a 4 minute speech in front of a teleprompter, no questions…. It’s not looking good. I agree this past year with his son and the Israel conflict has gotten the better of him. I truly think that was the goal of the Hunter Biden nonsense. They just wanted to break him. Hunter said that himself. It’s pretty fucked up.
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u/Optimal-Ad-7074 2d ago
yeah, here's the thing. biden's greatest strength (imo) is that he's biden. if he was 100% they would have/could have/should have just let him off the leash and let him be him and he would have trounced the bad guy.
but this disability handcuffs him. they can't let him off the leash so he can't showcase his primary asset. and the sad part is he probably still is biden, to tell the truth. people fixate too hard on alzheimers', but sometimes an old person gets the kind of decline they deserve and they just get a little slower and dimmer while still being themselves.
eta: someone he trusts ought to release him from that promise he made to beau.
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u/mrtwidlywinks 2d ago
If he does drop out, I expect the announcement will be a surprise. He wouldn’t want headlines like “behind the scenes, aides pressure Biden to drop out”. But who really knows
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u/Bawbawian 2d ago
this whole sub has become basically a Bernie or bust sublike back in 2016.
you go from saying you have this one set of ideas to actually working for the opposite agenda.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
I am yet to see a single person in any of these threads say they are voting for Trump or third party. Rather desperately begging for the Biden campaign to either change strategies or pass the torch if he is unable to do so.
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u/blueclawsoftware 2d ago
I won't dismiss the Biden should drop crowd, as I'm on the fence, pending more data. But I am starting to wonder how many of the posts and comments are from Bernie bros who are trying to get their pound of flesh since they still feel they were cheated in 16 and 20.
Also not lost on me the irony of those people claiming the DNC cheated Bernie now wanting the DNC to hand pick a better candidate with no primaries.
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u/spaeschke 2d ago
Dude, I've been a Republican my entire life until 8 years ago. I donated like a madman to the Biden campaign in 2020, praying with all my strength that he could edge out Bernie.
Now I'm going hammer and tongs for him to drop. The only thing, and I do mean the only thing, that I care about is making sure that Trump can't get back into office. Biden can't win now. And I don't mean that like, "well, he's less likely". I mean that there's zero chance for him now when nearly 75% of the electorate thinks his brain doesn't work. He's got to go.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
I have no idea what you mean. I've been faithful to the Bulwark since 2017, but only just joined the subreddit.
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u/cicero4966 2d ago
I think they're agreeing with you. The hosts aren't arguing in good faith because they have an agenda.
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u/sewcrazeee 2d ago
I couldn't agree with you more. Joe can do nothing, absolutely nothing, that would drive me to vote for the mango moron. Or Mr. Worms Ate My Brain.
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u/Ok_Calligrapher_8199 2d ago
Your English is impeccable. Two things:
Yes punditry is as pointless as you think, you’re not crazy you’ve got it exactly right. Joe Biden is not listening to the bulwark. Joe Biden DOES get briefed on what pod save America says, they’re huge. But he’s not going to do what they say.
I think it is spelled “amuck” but that’s some super advanced English right there.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
Thank you! 🙂 And always good to know I am not way off base. Though I'll never get the nuances as an outsider.
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u/cicero4966 2d ago
Amok:
"In a violently raging, wild, or uncontrolled manner. used in the phrase run amok. rioters running amok in the streets. Conditions had allowed extremism to run amok"
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u/Bitter_Firefighter_1 2d ago
It is valid argument. A performance like Biden had increases the likelihood of a trump presidency dramatically.
A change increases the likelihood of democratic president. So we should push fit it. I am fine actively supporting Biden man's his team. They completely lied to us about hu's fitness level. And fuck his family for encouraging him to keep the path and fight. He does not have the ability to.
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u/Optimal-Ad-7074 2d ago
I don't assume that they lied. things can happen. he's been doing rallies and appearances and I haven't heard the kind of outcry there has been this week. for all we know he had a small invisible stroke on June 16 or something.
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u/cicero4966 2d ago
I hear Deplorable lowlifes claiming Elder Abuse as well. Glad so many in this sub have gone mask off and exposed their true feelings. Pretty demented to accuse his wife and family of something so egregious. They're good people who have his best interests at heart and you're an a-hole for saying they don't.
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u/Bitter_Firefighter_1 2d ago
I am more than happy to be the asshole. First time in my life I have actively taken this roll. I have been snarky at times. One line be quiet at times. His family is making a terrible choice. And they are showing the narcissistic tendencies. All nice when grandpa and husband are president.
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u/metengrinwi 2d ago edited 2d ago
The value of it is to apply public pressure to President Biden to step aside (unless there really was a special case circumstance in the debate). The pundit class has a right to apply pressure to politicians, and the politicians should have enough vigor to push back.
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u/actual_poop 2d ago
Realistic is facing that Biden will lose if he stays in. He’s unfit for the office. Trump is unfit too but you need language processing skills to understand why. With Biden you just need eyes that work.
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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago
He’s unfit for the office
You mean the office he is currently holding.
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u/actual_poop 2d ago
Yes.
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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago
Holy shit, your post history lol. I encourage others to take a peek at it, especially the "minimum melanin requirement"
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u/actual_poop 2d ago edited 2d ago
It’s snarky because I’m stressed as fuck about all this, but I stand by my opinion that restricting possible candidates to certain identity groups instead of which swing states they can deliver is a liability to the Democratic Party.
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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago
Ok now that seems a more rational take lol. That's a fair point.
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u/actual_poop 2d ago
Also I said if it’s a requirement for democrats to not nominate anyone white, Raphael Warnock is right fucking there. He’s miles better than Harris.
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u/derrickcat 2d ago
Leaving everything else aside: We'd lose a Dem senator, in all likelihood, and we don't have a Dem senator to lose.
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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago
JVL questioned on whether Harris could be an effective party leader, much less a candidate for POTUS. If the objective was to pick her to gain the black vote in 2020, well I guess it worked, but I doubt even black voters like her now. If she is a liability - and she is frankly - the party has to move on.
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u/actual_poop 2d ago
JVL made a decent case for her in a shortened campaign where she just has to prosecute the case against Trump. I can get why she pretty much has to be the replacement. Of course I think Sarah’s more idealist ticket of Shapiro-Whitmer would be safer because they’re popular governors of the two swing states that matter the most, but that ticket isn’t realistic. It’s also a shame that that better ticket would create an intraparty shitstorm over the color of their skin.
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u/DickNDiaz 2d ago
I thought Mayor Pete would had been a better VP choice, but it's ironic that a segment of the party that is supposed to be for LGBTQ rights would not prefer him just because he's gay.
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u/silvana_6 2d ago
Did you watch the Warnock-Walker debate in Georgia? Warnock was totally unprepared. He managed to make Herschel Walker look not totally ridiculous. I like Warnock, but I don’t have confidence yet in his political skills. Maybe one day, but not yet.
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
Yeah, but who cares what anyone thinks? He gets to decide what happens 100%. Opinions don't mean sh*t.
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u/actual_poop 2d ago
Easy for you to say when your own country is gonna be a democracy come January 20 2025
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u/stkristobal 2d ago
Yeah, and that's what I will never understand about americans. Journalism doesn’t exist. It all a petting zoo for access. Noone is ever held responsible, noone asks the tough questions to the politicians faces. It's all softball, all the time. And crying amongst their peers about how awful things are when they get back. It’s pathetic, frankly.
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u/MindfulMocktail 2d ago
IMO thank God for the pundits speaking out about this because the politicians aren't being honest. I appreciate the message being pounded home over and over again megastar the Biden campaign needs to know how serious this is.
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u/Secret-Parsley-5258 1d ago
Currently looking up how to become a pundit to tackle the Norwegian market.
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u/WillOrmay 2d ago
Don’t you think pressure or lack of pressure from the public and the media might influence Biden’s decision? He’s not making that decision in a vacuum. Our politicians are influenced by public/media opinion.
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u/Circus_Brimstone 2d ago
Why do that? Getting people all bent out of shape and afraid is way better for more clicks and listeners!
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u/derrickcat 2d ago
Do you really not have punditry in Norway?
What is the news like there? Is it polarized? Do you have people paid for their opinions and hot takes like we do here?
I am so steeped in American and other English language culture that I honestly have a hard time even fathoming what it would be like, to not live with deep, angry polarization and punditry.
Related: Is it possible to move to Norway? (kidding/not kidding)