I think they're downvoting OP because the odds of accidentally getting an entire dozen of double-yolk eggs are akin to winning the lottery twice in a row.
Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, generally speaking.
Well, I was basing that phrase on the lowball possibility that the eggs all came from young chickens, which drops the chances of a double yolk from 1 in 1,000 to about 1 in 30, which gives you around 1 in 50 quadrillion chance of getting all 12 double yolks.
Don’t forget they then have to cook something that uses all twelve at once…kind of adds a drop to an ocean, but amazing how often they happen to be making something that would work out like that.
True. Double yolk cartons aren't super common and I'm not shocked that not everyone knows about them because not every store sells them. The three most likely explanations for OP's situation is that they bought the double yolks intentionally and lied, bought the double yolks accidentally and didn't notice, or bought a normal carton that contained all double yolks and was either not labeled as such, or accidentally mislabeled.
Them buying a normal carton that just so happened to have 12 eggs selected at random that all had double yolks is also possible, but astronomically unlikely.
The most I've ever received in a single carton was two, but they were jumbo sized eggs, so depending on the farm you get them from, that's not all that unusual. The odds of two double yolks in a single carton can be as high as 1 in 1,111 given the right circumstances, so rare but hardly unheard of if you eat a lot of eggs. I've bought a lot of cartons of jumbo eggs with one double yolk before.
An entire carton of them was likely due to a labeling or sorting mixup at the farm they were sourced from. I've also heard that some farms occasionally ship out all double-yolk egg cartons without labeling them as such, which again would technically qualify as "unlabeled."
Well, I'm literally not wrong because all I said was the odds are low, I didn't say it's impossible. I also didn't downvote OP because it's entirely possible they're telling the truth, regardless of the odds.
Is it really? Or are eggs one box likely from chickens that are siblings and genetically more likely to have double yolked eggs. I don't know the answer but humans can be more genetically likely to have non-identical twins.
are the downvotes because I admit I don't know. Is everyone supposed to be 100% knowledgeable on reddit?
That's the thing, though. Even in cases where you have chickens with a high rate of double yolks, we're still talking about 1 in 30 eggs. Even then, the odds of 12 double yolks ending up in the same carton by accident is like...1 in 50 quadrillion? If you somehow increased the odds to 1 in 2, that's still a 1 in 4,096 shot.
I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's so improbable that you'd need to do more than just post pictures of the eggs to satisfy most people that it's legitimate.
You might have looked up the probabilities, but you're acting as if eggs aren't sorted by size. Double yolked eggs are going to be bigger, the chances that "extra large" eggs end up having multiple or even a majority of double yolked eggs is much higher. And it's quite possible that OP got a mislabeled box, but I guess that's apparently so improbable we really need people to step up their defense of the downvoting circlejerk.
I've met people with rare cancers where there have been less than 60 recorded cases since the 1950s. People like you would probably bust out the statistics and say they need to post their medical records because you can't get over that improbable is not impossible.
You might have looked up the probabilities, but you're acting as if eggs aren't sorted by size. Double yolked eggs are going to be bigger, the chances that "extra large" eggs end up having multiple or even a majority of double yolked eggs is much higher.
You're right. Large eggs from young chickens do have higher odds. Those odds are where I got the 1 in 30 figure. The average chicken is 1 in 1,000. A chicken that lays a particularly high percentage of double yolks can clock in at a roughly 3% chance per egg of laying a double yolk egg.
And it's quite possible that OP got a mislabeled box, but I guess that's apparently so improbable we really need people to step up their defense of the downvoting circlejerk.
I'm not disagreeing with that. I didn't downvote OP, because there are three most likely scenarios and I don't know which one is the right one so I'm not going to downvote. Also, OP isn't acting like an asshole in the comments, so no reason there either. OP either intentionally bought double yolks and lied, accidentally bought labeled double yolks and didn't notice, or bought a carton of double yolks that was mislabeled.
I've met people with rare cancers where there have been less than 60 recorded cases since the 1950s. People like you would probably bust out the statistics and say they need to post their medical records because you can't get over that improbable is not impossible.
Well, you're wrong there. People "like me" wouldn't tell them to post shit, because I don't downvote someone for making improbable claims unless they're being a defensive twat when asked for more evidence, and OP isn't doing that. All I'm doing is explaining why the average Redditor downvotes stuff like this. Maybe before you say "people like you" you should actually know who you're talking about?
You're the one who cares enough about this topic to write dozens of comments arguing your bad statistics, despite multiple people telling you that the odds you started with aren't even correct because this is not a random sample of chickens in multiple ways. Several people have said that they've also had it happen where they received a full dozen double yolked eggs, but I guess they can also all by lying so they can get like, two upvotes for karma farming, because this is a very serious matter.
You were the one who wrote "extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence" as if a) it's as extraordinary as you keep making it out to be, like winning the lottery twice and b) that it demands evidence to satisfy, what, exactly? Redditors who can't get over themselves because whether or not OP really got a box of double yolked eggs is SUCH a ginormous deal on a sub called r/mildlyinteresting? You're right, people "like you" might not tell them to post shit, but you'd clearly be putting a lot of effort into telling all their naysaying friends and acquaintances that they're totally justified in being twats about not believing something because it needs extraordinary evidence...which is what, exactly, in this oh-so-high-stakes case? Even if OP posted the picture of the carton with the eggs, by your very same logic you would still be leaving dozens of comments pointing out that it's improbable, OP could've just taken a picture of another carton, and the average Redditor is totally right to be downvoting OP and being an twat to them in comments.
I think you just want to argue with people given how many comments you've left, so I guess you're just bored. Or maybe you're really that bothered by OP's totally super meaningful karma from this post.
Edit: Just saw that OP did post a picture. Again, I'm sure it doesn't meet your expectations of "extraordinary" evidence so you might as well leave another dozen comments...
You're the one who cares enough about this topic to write dozens of comments arguing your bad statistics, despite multiple people telling you that the odds you started with aren't even correct because this is not a random sample of chickens in multiple ways.
OP already stated that these eggs came from the exact same supplier that all of their previous eggs come from and this occurrence was enough of a shock for them to post on Reddit about it. That implies pretty strongly that it's not common for that supplier to send out double-yolk eggs.
Also, my statistics are fine.
You're right, people "like you" might not tell them to post shit, but you'd clearly be putting a lot of effort into telling all their naysaying friends and acquaintances that they're totally justified in being twats
No, I didn't. I pointed out that it's incredibly unlikely. If OP is telling the truth, then this post clearly belongs here, and I don't begrudge them for posting, I'm just pointing out that making a claim like this is guaranteed to bring on naysayers.
Even if OP posted the picture of the carton with the eggs, by your very same logic you would still be leaving dozens of comments pointing out that it's improbable, OP could've just taken a picture of another carton, and the average Redditor is totally right to be downvoting OP and being an twat to them in comments.
You're building a strawman right before my very eyes. It's astounding, really.
I think you just want to argue with people given how many comments you've left, so I guess you're just bored.
I'm often bored, and then people like you show up and I don't have the patience to deal with your bullshit, so I block you to preserve my sanity.
Just saw that OP did post a picture. Again, I'm sure it doesn't meet your expectations of "extraordinary" evidence so you might as well leave another dozen comments...
Is your hobby glancing at posts and not actually reading them before you reply? Because I never demanded any extraordinary evidence, I said the lack of evidence is why other people are downvoting OP. Please, if you're going to insult people, learn to read, but do it on someone else's posts.
If there was a big chicken farm where half the eggs were double yolkers selling 4000 boxes of eggs a day, every day someone, somewhere is getting a box of 12 double yolkers. They're the ones posting pictures online, not the ones with only two.
Tbf it's probably more likely they seperated the double yolkers and normally box them separately (I've seen them for sale before) and run out of the right boxes so just put them all in the standard large box.
If there was a big chicken farm where half the eggs were double yolkers selling 4000 boxes of eggs a day, every day someone, somewhere is getting a box of 12 double yolkers.
Yeah, but that doesn't happen. When I said "if you somehow increased the odds to 1 in 2" I was saying that to give an exaggerated example, because no chicken lays anywhere near a 50% double yolk ratio. As I said, 1 in 30 is about as common as it gets when the chickens are young. Maybe 1 in 20? I can't seem to find anything that supports that being a consistent number for any chicken, though. Either way, the average is 1 in 1,000.
Well, OP already indicated where the eggs came from and it's not a specialty place, but even if that's the case, as I and others have stated elsewhere in this thread, it could be that OP simply bought a mislabeled carton of eggs.
I didn't downvote OP, mind you, I'm just pointing out that when you make an extraordinary claim like getting all double yolks in a normal carton of eggs, or rolling five 20s on a d20 in a row, or getting heads on a coin flip 20 times in a row, just posting a picture of the eggs/coins/dice isn't really gonna prove anything and people tend to get annoyed by that on Reddit and then the downvote you over it.
That's not how it works, you're comparing statistically independent probability with a clearly statistically dependent probability. It's like proposing the chance of getting food poisoning is 1/50, so the chance of everyone getting food poisoning at a party of 10 people is 1/5010.It's related.
Have you ever cracked into an egg with a double yolk? Lucky you! Ever cracked into several eggs in your dozen to find double yolks in more than one egg? It might seem like finding a four leaf clover, but there is actually a reason this happens fairly often.
By themselves, double yolks are fairly rare – you might find them in 1 of every 1,000 eggs. These eggs typically come from our younger hens who are still learning how to lay eggs.
As you might expect, double yolked egg shells tend to be pretty big. In fact, they are usually graded ‘Super Jumbo.’ Eggs identified as Super Jumbo are too large for our packing machine to pack into cartons, so they are moved to the hand packing station. At Nellie’s, these eggs are still labeled as Jumbos, even though they are technically Super Jumbos. As the hand packers fill their Jumbo egg cartons with Super Jumbos, more than 50% of those will include an extra yolk. So that makes something fairly rare in nature suddenly appear rather common, simply because they have all been grouped together during the packing process and put into the same cartons.
So if you crack open a Nellie’s egg and find a double yolk, you’ll actually be pretty likely to find another ‘eggstra’ yolk or two in your dozen. And because those cartons are hand-packed and placed in cases together, you could find a whole grocery display of Jumbo dozens that have a high likelihood of containing a double yolked egg or two!
You're also referencing an article from a specific supplier that outright states that their packing practices influence the ratio of double-yolk eggs because they label their "super jumbo" eggs as just "jumbo" eggs, and they're pointing that out because most farms don't do that.
OP stated that these eggs come from the same supplier they always buy their eggs from, and that double yolks are not common in their eggs.
Also, I just checked where OP posted the carton, and it's an 18 egg carton, so they're not claiming they got 12 in a row, they're claiming they got 18 in a row....
It looks like you may be getting your eggs from a place that favors double-egg chickens, then, meaning your eggs may have been selected (or the chickens bred) specifically to have a high incidence of double yolks. Naturally, the odds of getting a full 18 eggs that are double yolks is still exceptionally rare, but if all you're buying is jumbo eggs and you're buying from a place that breeds chickens with a genetic predisposition towards double yolks, that could up the odds considerably.
I've also recently learned that, bizarrely, this phenomenon is far more common in Canada? Not sure how that's a thing, but it could be that Canadian poultry farmers are more inclined towards larger eggs? Maybe there's a specific breed of chicken that isn't used in the US but is in Canada? That's hard to say.
After running through this post for a while, I contacted a friend of mine who has been a pastry chef in Canada for over ten years and thus has cracked open probably over a million eggs in their lifetime, They did say that from what they've personally experienced, double yolks are more common in Canada than in the US, though they also confirmed that while it's not unheard of to get double yolks in a carton of eggs, and they've even seen more than half of a case occasionally come double yolked, they've never seen an entire carton of double yolks, which would further suggest that it's rare to see.
So it seems like the odds of double yolks in Canada from a farm that favors double yolk laying chickens does have a markedly higher chance of it happening, though we're still looking at less than 1%. It's still odd to me how vehemently people will react to something that is improbable but not impossible. It's one thing to ask questions, it's another to just say "Nah you're full of shit!" off the cuff.
Is it really? Or are eggs one box likely from chickens that are siblings and genetically more likely to have double yolked eggs. I don't know the answer but humans can be more genetically likely to have non-identical twins
My "winning the lottery twice in a row" figure is based on the probability of chickens that are more predisposed towards laying double yolks, which is roughly 1 in 30.
Average chickens only lay 1 double yolk in 1,000. If I'd gone by that number, it'd be more akin to winning the lottery four times in a row...
Is it really? Or are eggs one box likely from chickens that are siblings and genetically more likely to have double yolked eggs. I don't know the answer but humans can be more genetically likely to have non-identical twins
Large eggs from young chickens are often double yolkers. All the eggs in a box come from the same aged chickens. They’re labelled “large”. The odds aren’t that high.
The highest double-yolk rate even from young chickens that are prone to it is still around 1 in 30, which gives an all-double-yolk box a roughly 1 in 50 quadrillion chance of happening unless someone is intentionally loading cartons with just double-yolk eggs, which is why I specifically said the odds of it happening accidentally are extremely low. The odds of it happening on purpose is 100% because the people packing the boxes are specifically setting aside the double-yolk eggs to sell separately.
Yeah, it happened to you because someone probably packed 12 double-yolk eggs into the carton on purpose. Whether the carton was specifically labeled as double-yolk eggs or not is another matter.
That said, it's possible for certain farms to breed chickens with a higher tendency towards double yolks, but often times those farms will specialize in double yolk eggs and sell them as such. The thing is, OP said that they got this carton from the same source they've always bought eggs from and that same farm doesn't routinely produce lots of double-yolk eggs.
40
u/CupcakeValkyrie Dec 18 '22
I think they're downvoting OP because the odds of accidentally getting an entire dozen of double-yolk eggs are akin to winning the lottery twice in a row.
Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, generally speaking.